ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003 THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT BEST ESTIMATE USING GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA SUGGEST THAT IT IS INLAND AND MOVING 310/3. THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EVEN IF IGNACIO EMERGES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA...THE WATERS THERE ARE TOO COOL TO ALLOW REGENERATION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY VERY WELL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.0N 111.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 111.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.6N 111.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 26.5N 113.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC