Tropical Storm GUILLERMO
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED THAT GUILLERMO IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE LASTEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/15.
THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING GUILLERMO GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND MERGE WITH THE ITCZ
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INCLUDES FORECAST POINTS FOR THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF GUILLERMO MERGES WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED ITCZ
DISTURBANCE...DISSIPATION WOULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.
SINCE THE CENTER HAS CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...THIS IS THE LAST
FORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
GUILLERMO. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.
FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 140.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.3N 145.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 148.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 16.1N 150.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/1800Z 16.0N 157.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 160.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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