ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED THAT GUILLERMO IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LASTEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. GUILLERMO CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/15. THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING GUILLERMO GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND MERGE WITH THE ITCZ DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO. GUILLERMO IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES FORECAST POINTS FOR THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF GUILLERMO MERGES WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED ITCZ DISTURBANCE...DISSIPATION WOULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER. SINCE THE CENTER HAS CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GUILLERMO. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU. FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 140.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.3N 145.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 148.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z 16.1N 150.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1800Z 16.0N 157.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 160.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC