Tropical Storm FELICIA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE SOME
WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION
IN A TWO OR THREE DAYS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 128.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.3N 130.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.9N 133.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 135.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 139.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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