ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN A TWO OR THREE DAYS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 128.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.3N 130.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.9N 133.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 135.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 139.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC