Tropical Storm ODETTE

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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB.  A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43
KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. 
DROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH
FLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9.  SURFACE DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA.  THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION.  THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER
WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS
AND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

WHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE.  THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA.  PASSAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS
WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND
RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 15.3N  72.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.7N  71.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N  70.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  67.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.5N  62.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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