ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43 KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH FLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. WHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA. PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 15.3N 72.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 16.7N 71.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 70.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 67.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.5N 62.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC