Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003

KATE HAS A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-
DEFINED 22NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO
GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS INCREASED TO GOOD IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24
HR.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES IN 36-48
HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL MOVE AFTER
TURNING NORTHWARD.  AS A WHOLE...THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE NORTHWARD ACCELERATION THAN SEEN EARLIER...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER AS WELL.
 
KATE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HR GIVEN THE GOOD
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRUCTURE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HR...WHICH SHOULD START A
WEAKENING TREND.  KATE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 29.5N  48.3W    95 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 29.6N  50.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N  52.2W   100 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 30.6N  54.1W   100 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 31.6N  55.4W    90 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 37.5N  56.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 48.5N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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