Hurricane KATE
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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
KATE HAS A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-
DEFINED 22NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO
GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS INCREASED TO GOOD IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24
HR. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES IN 36-48
HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL MOVE AFTER
TURNING NORTHWARD. AS A WHOLE...THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE NORTHWARD ACCELERATION THAN SEEN EARLIER...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER AS WELL.
KATE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HR GIVEN THE GOOD
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRUCTURE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HR...WHICH SHOULD START A
WEAKENING TREND. KATE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.5N 48.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 29.6N 50.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 30.0N 52.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 30.6N 54.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 31.6N 55.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 48.5N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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