ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003 KATE HAS A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL- DEFINED 22NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS INCREASED TO GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES IN 36-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH- NORTHEAST. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL MOVE AFTER TURNING NORTHWARD. AS A WHOLE...THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD ACCELERATION THAN SEEN EARLIER...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER AS WELL. KATE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HR GIVEN THE GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRUCTURE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HR...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND. KATE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.5N 48.3W 95 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 29.6N 50.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 30.0N 52.2W 100 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 30.6N 54.1W 100 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 31.6N 55.4W 90 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 48.5N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC