Tropical Depression FIVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER AND WITHIN A
CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND SHIPS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS WARM WATER ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST 24HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF A
WARM OCEAN AND LOW SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD REACH TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY
STRONG. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
 
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 32.4N  55.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 33.7N  56.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 35.5N  56.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  55.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  54.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 41.5N  50.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 42.0N  45.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    35 KT
 
 
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