ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER AND WITHIN A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT THERE IS WARM WATER ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST 24HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF A WARM OCEAN AND LOW SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 32.4N 55.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 33.7N 56.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 56.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 37.5N 55.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 39.0N 54.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 41.5N 50.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 42.0N 40.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC