Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

CLAUDETTE IS PRODUCING BURSTING-TYPE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION DURING THE BURSTS AND
EXPOSED AT OTHER TIMES.  THE LAST TWO CENTER PASSES OF THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 65 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 20
NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 1001
AND 1002 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. 
DESPITE THE SHEAR AND THE RAGGED CENTRAL CONVECTION... CLAUDETTE IS
MAINTAINING AN OVERALL HEALTHY APPEARANCE WITH A LARGE BAND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
CLAUDETTE REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHOSE
WESTERN END IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  CLAUDETTE WILL
LIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO THE STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY WESTWARD AS PRESSURES
INCREASE TO THE NORTH.  THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALLY
DECELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HR AS
CLAUDETTE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY THE
ABOVE MENTIONED MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
CLAUDETTE RETAINS A SMALL CORE...AND THE ONGOING SHEAR COULD STILL
CAUSE WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS SHEARING PUNCH TO THE JAW
HAS NOT BEEN A FATAL BLOW.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND REDUCED SHEAR...AND WHILE THEY
STILL APPEAR TO DO THIS TOO SOON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN CIRRUS
CLOUD MOTIONS THAT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK.  BASED ON THIS...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
LANDFALL IN YUCATAN...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLAUDETTE COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE BY THEN.  AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE STORM SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO IN A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 16.0N  79.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.8N  82.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 18.3N  85.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 19.8N  88.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 21.2N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 23.0N  92.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 24.5N  93.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 25.5N  95.0W    60 KT
 
 
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