ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003 CLAUDETTE IS PRODUCING BURSTING-TYPE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION DURING THE BURSTS AND EXPOSED AT OTHER TIMES. THE LAST TWO CENTER PASSES OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 65 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 20 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 1001 AND 1002 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND THE RAGGED CENTRAL CONVECTION... CLAUDETTE IS MAINTAINING AN OVERALL HEALTHY APPEARANCE WITH A LARGE BAND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CLAUDETTE REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHOSE WESTERN END IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CLAUDETTE WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO THE STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY WESTWARD AS PRESSURES INCREASE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HR AS CLAUDETTE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. CLAUDETTE RETAINS A SMALL CORE...AND THE ONGOING SHEAR COULD STILL CAUSE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS SHEARING PUNCH TO THE JAW HAS NOT BEEN A FATAL BLOW. LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND REDUCED SHEAR...AND WHILE THEY STILL APPEAR TO DO THIS TOO SOON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS THAT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BASED ON THIS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLAUDETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THEN. AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE STORM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.0N 79.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.8N 82.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 18.3N 85.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 19.8N 88.1W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1800Z 21.2N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/1800Z 23.0N 92.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 13/1800Z 24.5N 93.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC