en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151741
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to 
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days. 
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves 
slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, remaining south of the 
coast of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2024 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Aletta         a-LET-ah         Miriam          MEER-ee-uhm
Bud            buhd             Norman          NOR-muhn
Carlotta       kar-LOT-uh       Olivia          oh-LEEV-ee-uh
Daniel         DAN-yuhl         Paul            pall
Emilia         eh-MILL-ya       Rosa            ROH-zuh
Fabio          FAH-bee-o        Sergio          SIR-gee-oh
Gilma          GIL-mah          Tara            TAIR-uh
Hector         HEHK-tor         Vicente         vee-CEN-tay
Ileana         ill-ay-AH-nah    Willa           WIH-lah
John           jahn             Xavier          ZAY-vee-ur
Kristy         KRIS-tee         Yolanda         yo-LAHN-da
Lane           layne            Zeke            zeek

A full list of eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclone names 
and pronunciations can be found at: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac.pdf

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.  The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT.  After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide 
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances 
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular 
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone 
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and 
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all 
ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a special advisory package 
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected 
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for 
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose 
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to 
land areas within 48 hours.  For these land-threatening "potential 
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and 
watch/warning products.  Potential tropical cyclones share the 
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, 
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E", 
"Three-E", etc.).  

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of 
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel 
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between 
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by 
radar.  The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to 
precede the issuance of a special advisory package.  Tropical 
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found 
under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov.  More information on NHC text products 
can be found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml, 
while more information about NHC graphical products can be 
found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml. New and 
updated products for the 2024 season can be found at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Updates_2024.pdf

NHC is now providing Spanish language text products to include all 
Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical 
Cyclone Update, and Key Messages for the eastern Pacific basin.  
These products will use AI techniques tested in 2023. Links to 
Spanish-language advisory products will be available 
on hurricanes.gov. Information on headers for Spanish language 
products can be found in the 2024 new and updated products for the 
2024 season document at: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Updates_2024.pdf

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at 
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.  Notifications are available 
via Twitter when select NHC products are issued.  Information 
about our eastern Pacific Twitter feed is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake