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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 201113

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A concentrated area of thunderstorms associated with a westward-
moving tropical wave is located about 850 miles east of the
Windward Islands.  Although this disturbance shows some signs of
organization on satellite imagery, there is no evidence of a surface
circulation at this time.  Some additional development is possible
today before upper-level winds become highly unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation starting tonight and continuing through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by Friday
night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda
and the Azores.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low
to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form over the weekend or early
next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila