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489 
ABNT20 KNHC 150531
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low 
pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida is 
gradually becoming better defined. However, the shower and 
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. This system is forecast 
to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, 
then reach the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional 
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to 
latter part of this week as the system moves across the northeastern 
and north-central Gulf.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy 
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the 
north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen