000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041528
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: Very large NW swell persists over
the waters north of 26N and west of 126W, associated with a gale
center well north of the region. The very rough seas induced by
this swell will subside below 12 ft by late today.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N80W to 07N90W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 09N123W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 08N east of 84W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are ongoing over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, associated with high pressure building north of the
area. Farther north, a surface trough, the remnants of a cold
front, is approaching Baja California Sur from the west. To the S
of this trough, there are still some fresh N winds offshore Baja
California Sur. Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere, except slight seas over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the gap winds across Tehuantepec will persist
through tonight, then diminish as high pressure north of the area
weakens. A weak pressure gradient will support gentle to 
moderate breezes elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Long 
period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California 
offshore waters through Mon, with moderate seas elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region. 
Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
tonight into Tue. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 26N and west of 126W leading to very rough
combined seas through late today.

A deep layer trough persists roughly along 125W from 10N and 25W,
supporting fresh E winds, seas to 9 ft, and scattered moderate
convection from 12N to 15N between 121W and 125W. A surface
trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 30N130W to
23N140W. Rough seas are present in the NW waters due to NW swell,
for waters N and W of a line from 30N120W to 13N140W. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across waters N of
20N tonight, then dissipate near the coast of Baja California
late Mon. Another cold front will enter the northern waters Mon
and approach 120W through late Tue. These fronts will disrupt the
standard subtropical ridge north of 20N, maintaining gentle to 
moderate breezes across the region through early next week. 

$$
Konarik