000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310308
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 
21.3N 126.0W at 31/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft
or 9.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm
in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
elsewhere from 19N to 26N between 122W and 130W. Genevieve is 
expected to gradually weaken while continuing on a west-
northwest track during the next few days. The system is forecast
to become post- tropical late this weekend, and weaken to a 
remnant low early next week. 

Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will
persist for the next several days, and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, N of 02N into the
Western Caribbean, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W, from 03N to 19N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 22N between 
108W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N91W to 07N110W. A monsoon trough segment extends
from southwest of Genevieve at 14N130W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 80W and 88W, from 04N to 15N between 100W and 108W, and
from 02N to 14N between 133W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in 
the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, increasing NW swell may lead to rough seas again 
offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Fresh to 
locally strong gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
tonight, then moderate to fresh Fri night. Moderate to fresh NW 
winds are expected to pulse tonight and Fri night nearshore Baja 
California. Elsewhere, fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in 
the northern Gulf of California beginning tonight, possibly to 
strong Sat night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft 
are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to
locally fresh gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to
moderate seas are noted between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough 
seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Pulsing
moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama tonight. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern 
Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight and 
Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected across the remainder of the waters through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
recently downgraded Tropical Storm Genevieve.

For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is 
centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE winds to the north and west of Genevieve. 
Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion
waters. Moderate seas also dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 21.8N 
128.0W Fri morning, 22.5N 130.7W Fri evening, 23.3N 133.5W Sat 
morning, 24.1N 136.4W Sat evening, 25.0N 139.2W Sun morning, and 
become post-tropical and move to 26.1N 141.5W Sun evening. Away 
from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast 
through the weekend. Fresh and rough northerly swell off 
California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja 
California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the 
weekend into early next week. New large southerly swell may 
build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.

$$
AL