000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112035
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific (EP99): Recent satellite-derived wind data 
indicates that a well-defined low pressure system has formed in 
association with an area of showers and thunderstorms located well 
to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.   Any significant increase in the organization of the 
showers and thunderstorms would result in the formation of a 
tropical depression later today or on Wednesday.  The system is 
forecast to move northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the next few days 
and encounter cooler waters late this week. There is a high chance 
for tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W north of 06N through 
Central America into the western Caribbean, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 02N to 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 06N102W to low pres
near 15N137.5W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 87W and 
109W, from 04N to 17N between 112W and 120W, from 12N to 19N
between 126W and 134W, and from 05N to 17N between 134W and 
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to near- gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are found
elsewhere. Moderate seas are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico, with slight to moderate seas over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of
the week. Winds will then briefly diminish through the end of the
week before strengthening again this weekend. The pressure 
gradient between high pressure W of the area and lower pressures 
over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu. A 
moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate
winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with 
moderate seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds, and moderate to locally rough seas,
persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and 
occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail between the Galapagos 
Islands and Ecuador. Southerly swell will bring rough seas to 
these waters Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW 
swell are expected elsewhere. The Telica volcano in Nicaragua, 
located near 12.6N 86.8W, is producing a plume of volcanic ash 
that reaches offshore to near 12N88W. Mariners should exercise 
caution over these waters. In the event mariners encounter 
volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to 
the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting a large swath of fresh to
strong winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 
125W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted south of the monsoon 
trough and west of 135W. Rough seas cover these waters. 
Convergence with the broad area of fresh to strong winds is 
generating a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to increase across
the west- central portion of the forecast region by the middle 
part of the week as a potential tropical cyclone develops, as
discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

$$
AL