000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N87W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N87W to 04N99W to 08N114W to 06N127W to beyond
08N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 04N to 09N between 79W and 86W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 86W 
and 89W, from 01N to 07N between 94W and 103W, and from 02N to 
06N between 114W and 119W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 90W and 96W, from 03N
to 15N between 107W and 110W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W 
and 134W. Similar convection is noted within 240 nm of Mexico 
between 92W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge reaching across the offshore waters of Baja
California is disrupted by a surface trough just beyond the
offshore waters. This pressure pattern supports mainly gentle to
moderate N-NE winds across the offshore waters, except in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec where strong to near gale-force northerly 
winds are present. This is due to a tight pressure gradient with 
high pressure ridging building southward across eastern Mexico
behind a cold front reaching to the eastern Bay of Campeche. 
Seas are 7-9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 5-6 ft elsewhere
offshore in a mix of long period S-SW and NW swells. In the Gulf
of California, seas are 3 ft or less, with mainly gentle winds,
except for moderate to fresh S-SW winds developing N of 30N due
to localized troughing and gap wind flow from the peninsula.

Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection are
present within about 240 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W 
and 100W. Strong and gusty winds to gale-force and rough seas may 
accompany this activity.
 
For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning as high
pressure builds over eastern Mexico with a cold front passing by
in the Bay of Campeche. Seas will peak around 10 ft at times 
with these winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then pulse there 
into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to locally strong SW 
winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California 
this evening and night as a NE to SW trough develops there, and
possibly again Wed evening. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, 
increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California later
tonight through Fri as ridging west of the Baja peninsula 
strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore 
Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed 
SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, potentially 
building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night, 
then possibly to at least 8-12 ft Sun while seas of 8 ft or
greater spread to off Cabo San Lazaro.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the 
Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W late this
afternoon. Seas are 6-7 ft with these winds. Light to gentle 
winds dominate the remainder of the waters, except to moderate
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft
in southerly swell elsewhere N of the Equator, except 3-5 ft
offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Seas are 5-7 ft from
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Very active 
convection continues across the offshore waters from 04N to 09N 
and into portions of the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
and Colombia as described above. Strong and gusty winds, and 
rough seas may accompany this activity.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong 
offshore of the Papagayo region through much of the week, mainly
at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to 
rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend, locally moderate to fresh out
of the N-NE in the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at
times. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active 
across the waters mainly S of 09N through at least Wed evening. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mainly a broad ridge extends across the waters N of the monsoon 
trough to 20N. This pattern supports gentle to moderate mainly NE
trades across the waters N of the monsoon trough, except
moderate to fresh from 09N to 20N and W of 120W. Seas are mainly  
5-7 ft seas in mixed long period southerly and northerly swell. 
Mainly gentle E-SE winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, along 
with 6-7 ft seas, except 7-9 ft seas in southerly swell S of the 
Equator and W of 100W. Active convection is present near much of 
the monsoon trough axis as described above.

For the forecast, the ridge will weaken slightly ahead of an 
approaching weak cold front currently just W of 30N140W. The 
associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate 
trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W 
today, with seas of 6-7 ft across this area, locally to 8 ft 
tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin 
to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to 
produce fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 125W, with seas 
building 7-9 ft. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to 
fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by the 
weekend, with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to 
around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far 
southwestern waters S of the Equator and W of 100W, and will 
persist there tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may continue across 
this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky