000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152218
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from northwestern 
Colombia to 04N95W, where it transitions to an ITCZ and 
continues to 05N113W, then from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and
south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N east of 96W, and 
north of the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 104W and 111W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is found near the second
segment of the ITCZ from 02N to 09N west of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging to the west is maintaining moderate to fresh NW to
N winds across and seas of 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California and
near the Revillagigedo Islands. A thermal trough running across
the length of the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to
locally moderate NW to SW to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Except
moderate to locally fresh N winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
indicated by the latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data, 
mainly gentle winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern 
Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms are seen at the far western 
offshore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero States.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds in the 
northern and central Gulf of California are expected to pulse to 
strong with locally near-gale force at night this weekend. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the offshore waters of 
Baja California will continue through Mon morning, except 
increase to between fresh and strong west of Baja California 
Norte Sat through Sun night, due to an eastward shift of a strong
high pressure to the northwest. In addition, large NW swell are 
going to cause rough to very rough seas near Baja California 
Norte tonight through Tue, and rough seas near Baja California 
Sur Sat through Tue.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
30N
Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer along with altimeter data 
reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to 
near 88W. Gentle to moderate winds, from the north are present 
at the Gulf of Panama, and from the south are seen off Colombia,
Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are
noted at these locations, with long-period southerly swell
persisting at the latter locations. Gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the central America offshore 
waters. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon 
Trough section at the beginning for convection in the region.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with 
locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the 
Papagayo region through Tue night. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight and Sat night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected through early next week. Scattered 
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the 
offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through the 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough near 12N118W is generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection well southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands from 06N to 10N between 115W and 120W. Refer to the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section at the 
beginning for additional convection in the region. A broad ridge
stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well 
west of northern California across 30N130W to just southeast of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature controls the wind regime
north of the ITCZ, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds west of 
122W, and mostly moderate N to NE winds east of 122W. Seas north 
of the ITCZ range from 6 to 8 ft in a mix of moderate swells. 
South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
shift eastward through late Sat leading to a tightening of the 
pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and
130W. This will bring fresh to strong NW to N winds for this 
area during the weekend. Associated long-period, large N swell 
will build seas there to between 12 and 16 ft. The high is 
forecast to shift back westward while weakening early next week,
which should allow these winds to diminish to between moderate 
and fresh. The large north swell will begin to slowly subside 
from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California dropping 
below 12 ft.

$$

Chan