000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150839
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 14.9N 111.8W at 15/0900
UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 to 15 ft or 4.5 m. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm in 
the east semicircle and 240 nm in the west semicircle of Elida. 
Elida is moving toward the west, and this general motion is 
expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn toward the 
northwest at a slower speed is expected by Thu night. Steady
strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Elida is 
forecast to become a hurricane by Thu night and reach its peak 
intensity on Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91.5W, north of 03N to across portions 
of Guatemala and far SE Mexico in the Yucatan Peninsula, moving 
slowly westward at 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described in 
the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section.

A tropical wave is along 138W from 02N to 20N, moving westward 
at around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure area is noted along the 
wave at 13N. Any nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N85W to 08N87W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N87W to 06N91W, then resumes west of a 
tropical wave from 06N94W to 13N108W, then resumes SW of 
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida from 12N114W to 07N123W 
to 12N135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 07N between 77W and 80W, from 12N to 15N
between 89W and 94W, within 390 nm south of the ITCZ between  
106W and 135W, and within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W
and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 90W and 94W, within 270 nm north of the ITCZ between 93W
and 107W, and from 05N to 13N between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida, centered 491 nautical 
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Fresh to strong winds extend across portions of the waters south
of 20N and west 107W to the north and east of Elida early this
morning, and impacting the offshore waters of the Revillagigedo
Islands to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas across this area are 6 to 
13 ft. Elsewhere to the east, fresh to strong gap winds are 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. A broad
ridge prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja Baja California and to
the NW of Elida. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
NW to N winds and 4 to 5 ft seas across the Baja waters, and 
light breezes with 1 to 3 ft seas inside the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 15.0N 113.8W
this afternoon, 15.1N 116.1W Thu morning, 15.5N 118.1W Thu 
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 119.8W Fri 
morning, 17.1N 121.3W Fri afternoon, and 18.2N 122.7W Sat 
morning. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to 
20.9N 125.4W early Sun. Otherwise, a broad ridge will continue to
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through
Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue 
along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are increasing to moderate to locally fresh in 
the central and northern portions later today. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest 
during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough
seas at times.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later
this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves 
generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo 
region to near 92W per recent OSCAT scatterometer data, with 
moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere north of 09N to 
offshore northern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft downstream of 
Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of 
the waters, locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama and near the 
Azuero Peninsula. Moderate seas dominate the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across 
the Papagayo region, peaking at night through at least Sun night,
producing moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama this 
morning and again tonight into early Thu. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are 
expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida, centered 491 nautical 
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are near a tropical wave along
138W, with a weak 1010 mb low analyzed along the tropical wave at
13N, within about 420 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Similar winds are found elsewhere 
from 15N to 25N between 116W and 130W. Moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found south of the ITCZ 
and Elida between 107W and 127W. Winds are moderate or weaker 
across the remainder of the waters, except moderate to fresh 
north of the ITCZ to 13N to the east of 102W with 6 to 7 ft seas.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a mix of swells elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 15.0N 113.8W
this afternoon, 15.1N 116.1W Thu morning, 15.5N 118.1W Thu 
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 119.8W Fri 
morning, 17.1N 121.3W Fri afternoon, and 18.2N 122.7W Sat 
morning. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to 
20.9N 125.4W early Sun. Winds and seas associated with the weak
low along the tropical wave near 138W will persist through this 
afternoon as the wave shifts west of 140W by Thu. NE winds will 
freshen with seas 5 to 7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 
125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough ridging 
farther north.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later
this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves 
generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.

$$
Lewitsky