000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291610
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Polo is centered near 27.8N 110.9W at 29/1500 UTC,
moving northeast at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Peak seas are to near 27 ft (8 m). Polo is now over the Gulf
of California, with scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection within 30 nm of the center. Polo is expected to 
accelerate northeastward in the flow on the east side of a mid-
latitude trough over the southwestern United States. The forecast
track shows the cyclone making landfall near Guaymas in the next
few hours and then crossing northwestern Mexico until 
dissipation occurs. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals 
of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. 
Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches 
is expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This 
rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo 
will affect portions of the coast of the Baja California 
peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. 
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip 
currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your
local weather office. For a complete depiction of forecast 
rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 15.3N 105.0W at 29/1500
UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (8 M). Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is within 240 nm in the
southwest semicircle of Rachel, and within 120 nm in the
northeast semicircle. Rachel will turn toward the northwest 
later today as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico, followed
by a gradual decrease in forward speed as Rachel moves into a 
region with weaker steering flow. Outer bands from Rachel will 
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest 
Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of 
flooding and mudslides, especially in regions of steep terrain. 
Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
during the next several days. Rachel is expected to produce 
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of 
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may 
produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep 
terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated
with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by 
Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
during the next couple of days and spread northward through 
midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office.

Newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 
14.4N 131.6W at 29/1500 UTC, moving east at 8 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm in the northern quadrant. Although the system has 
become a tropical depression, the center is mostly exposed with 
moderate shear. There is a slight chance of the system reaching 
tropical storm intensity later today before it feels the cold 
wake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow. The environment is 
expected to further dry out during the next couple of days with 
an increase in shear. These factors should cause the depression 
to weaken by late Wed and degenerate into a post- tropical 
cyclone by late Thu. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Rachel and
  Nineteen-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 13N94W, and from
13N108W to 11N115W to 15N132W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 13N 
between 100W and 120W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.

These systems will impact a large majority of the forecast 
waters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore 
the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere
over the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough
seas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere,
except slight in the northern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Polo is near 27.8N 110.9W at 8 AM 
PDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 981 mb. Polo will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm 
near 30.5N 108.2W this evening, and dissipate Wed morning. 
Farther south, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 15.3N 105.0W at 8 AM
PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 987 mb. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 
16.5N 106.4W this evening, move to 17.9N 107.7W Wed morning, 
19.0N 108.8W Wed evening, 19.7N 109.5W Thu morning, 20.1N 110.0W 
Thu evening, and 20.4N 110.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change 
little in intensity as it moves to the northeast of the 
Revillagigedo Islands by late Fri night, and meander between 
those islands and the southern tip of Baja California through 
late Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate east to southeast winds are over the western portion 
of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light 
gradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. 
Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near
the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain
moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with 
mostly moderate seas through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and T.D. Nineteen-E.

The remnant low of Odalys is near 21N123W with a pressure of 
1006 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh 
northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing 
north of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W.

For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 14.5N 130.2W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression 
near 14.5N 128.5W Wed morning, move to 14.7N 126.8W Wed evening, 
14.9N 125.1W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.0N 
123.3W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Winds and seas 
will diminish elsewhere outside of tropical cyclone area as 
described above.

$$
Christensen