000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270420
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle is centered near 23.0N 125.9W at
27/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft 
(4.5 m). No significant convection is noted near the center of
Iselle. Iselle should continue to move west-northwestward over the next 
couple of days, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north of the 
cyclone. Increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and 
a drier air mass will continue to weaken the system. The 
post-tropical remnant low is expected to gradually spin down 
and open into a trough in about 2 to 3 days. Swells generated by
Iselle will continue to affect the west coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula for a couple more days. These swells are 
likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Iselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central East Pacific (Invest EP93): A broad area of low pressure
located well south of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although the system has
not become better organized over the last several hours, 
environmental conditions are still expected to support gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form tonight or on Thursday. The system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of Mexico.This 
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

Western East Pacific (Invest EP94): An area of low pressure 
located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has 
become slightly better organized over the last several hours. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or early this weekend while the system drifts to the 
northeast, before turning westward by early next week. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89W north of 05N to across 
portions of El Salvador, moving westward around 10 kt. Any 
nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07N90W to 1006 mb low
pressure (EP93) near 09N108W to 14N160W, and from 14N130W to low
pressure near 1008 mb near 11N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is active from 04N13N between 85W
to 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
low pressure Invest EP93 near 09N108W with the high chance for
tropical cyclone formation.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle is well beyond the offshore waters 
of Baja California. Outer associated swells of 7 to 8 ft are 
impacting the far Baja California Norte waters near the outer 
offshore boundary. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly gap winds
continue to blow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. 
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas,
except slight in the Gulf of California. Active showers and 
thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of
southern and southwestern Mexico as described with Invest EP93 
in the Special Features section above with locally higher winds 
and seas possible there.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure, Invest EP93, centered well
southwest of southern Mexico has a chance for tropical cyclone 
formation, but stay outside of the offshore waters as it moves
wes-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt Sun. The center of the low 
pressure will make its closest point of approach within 120 nm to
the southwest of Clarion Island Fri night into Sat. Meanwhile, 
outer rough swells associated with Tropical Storm Iselle will 
continue to subside through tonight as the system continues to 
pull away from the offshore waters of Baja California while 
weakening. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally 
rough seas there at times. A surge of fresh to strong 
southeasterly winds likely associated with convective complexes 
may move up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri 
and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could
form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
by early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
well downwind to near 10N93W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate
seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern
Panama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the 
outer offshore waters areas from Colombia northward as described
above with Invest EP93 in the Special Features section, with 
locally higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the Sat night, then
moderate to fresh thereafter, with associated moderate to fresh
winds extending well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El
Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the
monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be
moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas.
Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about 
Tropical Storm Iselle, low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance 
of tropical cyclone formation, and another broad area of low 
pressure, Invest EP94 in the far west-central waters, also with 
the potential for tropical cyclone formation. 

Otherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough hand west of 110W. South of the monsoon trough, mainly 
moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the open 
waters with very active convection present. Seas are mainly 
moderate, except rough near and south of 03N between 115W and 
135W in southwesterly swell.

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle will become a 
remnant low and move to 23.6N 127.2W Thu morning, 24.3N 128.8W 
Thu evening, 24.8N 130.2W Fri morning, 25.3N 131.6W Fri evening, 
and dissipate Sat morning. Other than the two remaining Special 
Features areas, Invest EP93 and Invest EP94, above, large 
southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through Thu 
night before decaying. Looking ahead, much larger and more 
expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by 
early next week. Little change is forecast elsewhere away from 
the Special Features areas.

$$
Christensen