000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning: Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas is centered near 
19.5N 128.5W at 1200 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m 
extend up to 150 nm N and NE of the center. Douglas is no longer
a tropical storm, as moderate showers and thunderstorms are
limited but persist within 300 nm N and E of center. However, recent
satellite scatterometer data showed gale-force winds persisting 
within 150 nm in the northern semicircle of the system. 
Therefore, a gale warning remains in effect through midday as 
this remnant low moves northwestward. The remnants of Douglas 
are expected to gradually weaken this weekend and then open into 
a trough and dissipate by Sunday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest Douglas NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W-93W, south of 20N in the NW 
Caribbean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is 
described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon 
Trough section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 102W, south of 15N, moving 
west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is also described below 
in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07N78W to 09.5N87W to
05.5N104W to 14.5N126W to 09.5N140W. Scattered to locally
numerous to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N east of 
89W, and from 02N to 13.5N between 89W and 103W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N
between 103W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW 
and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes
and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh to 
strong N gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue to 
pulse in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
downstream to near 14N this morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along the coasts of Chiapas and western Oaxaca,
and are more numerous across the far outer waters S of 14N.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds with locally 
rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this 
morning, then diminish to moderate to fresh through Sat night. 
Farther north, the ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle
to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to 
occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sun
as the high pressure builds modestly into the area. Looking 
ahead, large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off 
southern Mexico early next week.


....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the 
Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W. Seas are 6 to 8
ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW to W breezes are 
noted elsewhere to the south. Cross-equatorial SW swell 7 to 8 
ft dominate waters S of 05N between the Galapagos Islands and 
Ecuador, with 5-6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered to locally numerous
strong convection continues across the waters N of 02N from 
Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds 
and locally rough seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to 
occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will 
dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to 
the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and
the Galapagos Sun night through Tue, and 5 to 7 ft across the 
northern Central America early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section on the gale warning
associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas. Fresh to strong 
winds and rough seas to 10 ft extend 360 to 480 nm N and NW from
the center of Douglas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft 
seas are noted elsewhere north of 17N and west of 120W. Farther 
east, fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas are 
occurring S of 12N, and accompany the tropical wave along 101W. 
Mostly gentle to moderate SE breezes and 5-7 ft seas in mixed 
swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will diminish through Sun night as the remnant low opens into a 
trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist
across the region through early next week, supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking 
ahead, weak low pressure may form about 360 nm south of the 
Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. Environmental conditions 
could support some gradual development of this system while it 
moves generally westward at 10-15 kt through the early part of 
next week, although chances of development at this time are low.

$$
Stripling