000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is SW of Tehuantepec with axis near 97W, 
extending from 05N to 15N, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. 
 Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough 
section below. 

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 115W, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below.

A tropical wave extends from 01N to 18N with axis near 135W, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in 
the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N85W to 10N95W. Segments
of the ITCZ extend from 09N100W to 10N115W, and from 10N120W to
09N125W to 10N135W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
08N east of 90W, and from 10N to 17N between 95W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An overnight scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong N 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching about 13N. Rough seas 
in the 8-9 ft range are present with the strongest winds. 
Moderate easterlies are ongoing S of 13N, in the Tehuantepec and 
Oaxaca outer offshore waters along with moderate seas to 7 ft. 
High pressure of 1027 mb near 38N139W extends a ridge SE to the 
Baja California offshore waters, which is supporting gentle to 
moderate NW winds off the Baja Peninsula along with 4-5 ft seas. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with slight seas, except 
moderate seas in SW swell over the remainder SW offshores. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Sun. The
pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and lower
pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support fresh to
locally strong southerly winds across the southern and northern
Gulf of California Sat night into Mon. Elsewhere, a moderate
pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds
across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico. Looking ahead, a
tropical wave currently SW of Tehuantepec will move west and
reach the Revillagigedo Islands adjacent waters Mon evening
through Wed evening, bringing fresh winds and shower activity to
the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across and downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo to nearly 90W. Seas of 7 to 8 ft accompany the 
plume of gap winds. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to locally fresh
N winds extends to 06N. Moderate seas in the 4 to 5 ft are over 
this region. Otherwise, moderate easterlies from the Papagayo gap
wind event extends across the Guatemala and El Salvador outer 
offshores where seas are 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are
also across the Ecuador offshores with moderate seas to 5 ft.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas
in SW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
in the Papagayo region through Wed, reaching near gale-force
briefly tonight through late Sun as the Bermuda High shift
southward E of the area, thus increasing the pressure gradient
over the SW Caribbean. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of
moderate to locally fresh easterlies across the outer offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate or weaker
southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the
offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast
period. Moderate northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama
at night through Tue evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high near 38N138W extends a ridge across the 
subtropical E Pacific waters to nearly 115W. The gradient of 
pressure between this area of high pressure and a tropical wave 
with axis near 135W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds from 10N to 20N W of 135W. Seas over these waters are 7-8 
ft. Large SE swell to 8 ft are found over the waters S of 05N 
between 115W and 135W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in the western tradewind waters 
will subside today. Farther south, southerly swell to 8 ft will 
impact the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through the 
weekend. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms associated with the
tropical wave near 135W may further organize, likely resulting 
in the development of a tropical depression early next week as 
this system moves westward toward the central Pacific. Also, an 
area of low pressure could form well offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico early or into the middle of next week. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it 
moves generally west-northwestward.

$$
Christensen