000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 95W, extending from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec southward to 06N, moving westward at 5 to 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 07N to 16N between 90W and 103W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 11N86W to 12N105W to 
08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 11N east 
of 90W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
10N between 110W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough axis has been analyzed over the Baja California 
Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring south 
of Cabo San Lucas and offshore of Baja California Sur, and 
pockets of moderate W to SW winds are noted through the Gulf of 
California. A second surface trough has been analyzed from 
30N120W to 26N126W, and mainly gentle winds are noted surrounding
this feature. Rough seas to 8 ft in NW swell prevail over the 
waters well offshore of Baja California Norte. Otherwise, ridging
extends over the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will pulse 
offshore of Baja California Sur and in southern portions of the 
Gulf of California nightly through late this week as troughing 
prevails over the region. Elsewhere, rough seas offshore of Baja 
California Norte will slowly subside today. Looking ahead, an 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated 
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the 
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph. There is
a low (10%) chance of formation within the next 48 hours, and a 
high (80%) chance within the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore of El
Salvador through Colombia, and gusty winds and rapidly building 
seas are likely near the strongest activity. Otherwise, mainly 
gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with gentle 
to moderate S to SW winds occurring to the south. Moderate seas 
of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell prevail over the Central and South 
America offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a building cross equatorial swell will promote
locally rough seas well offshore of Ecuador tonight through Thu,
with seas diminishing thereafter. Moderate to occasionally fresh
S to SW winds are anticipated south of the monsoon trough 
through this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to 
SE winds are expected from the Gulf of Papagayo through the 
waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu through this 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A 1036 mb high centered north of the area near 42N141W extends 
ridging through much of the eastern Pacific waters. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds are occurring north of 20N and west of 128W. Rough
seas in N to NE swell are occurring north of 18N and west of 
120W, with locally very rough seas to 12 ft occurring north of 
28N, as seen on recent altimeter data and SOFAR buoy data. 
Farther east, a surface trough has been analyzed from 30N120W to 
26N126W, and mainly gentle winds are noted surrounding this 
feature. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient between the ridge 
and the ITCZ is leading to fresh NE winds just north of the ITCZ 
to 12N, generally west of 130W. South of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 
ft in mixed SE and SW swell prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will 
occur north of 25N and west of 125W into early Fri as a strong 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
troughing to the east. Rough seas will continue north of 18N 
today, with seas subsiding from south to north Thu through Fri. 
Elsewhere, pockets of fresh NE winds are expected just north of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ through Thu. Looking ahead, an area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a 
tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coast 
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves 
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph. There is 
a low (10%) chance of formation within the next 48 hours, and a 
high (80%) chance within the next 7 days. 

$$
ADAMS