000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 14.7N 117.0W at 29/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 32 ft (9.5 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm
NW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest,
and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 
day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast 
to become a hurricane later today and could become a major 
hurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to 
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.6N 134.8W at 29/0900
UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft (4 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW 
semicircle. Lowell is expected to continue to move westward and
increase its forward speed through today. Lowell may gradually
strengthen through Sun and could become a hurricane west of 140W by
Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 15N, 
moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 100W and 
102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N80W to 10N85W to
07N100W to 09N105W, and from 111N115W to 15N125W. In addition to
the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, 
numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 
06N to 12N between 85W and 105W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Karina.

While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican
offshore waters, strong to near- gale force winds and rough to 
very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are 
reaching across the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong N gap 
winds are active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as noted in a 
recent scatterometer satellite pass. The same pass also confirmed
moderate to fresh SE winds across the northern Gulf of 
California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong to near-gale force SE winds and 
rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina
will impact the waters around Clarion Island into Sun, then 
diminish through Mon as Karina continues to move W-NW and away 
from the area. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional
rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist
across the northern Gulf of California through late Sun. Looking
ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form during 
the next day or two well to the south of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week while it moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend
into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer 
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may
freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next
week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate
seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.

The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle has dissipated,
leaving a trough along 132W from 22N to 27N. Fresh winds and 
moderate to rough seas are occurring within 120 nm west of the
trough. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the 
remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon 
trough away from the two tropical storms. Rough seas generated by
Karina cover the waters from 05N to 20N between 105W and 125W. 
Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 118.4W this
afternoon, move to 16.5N 120.3W Sun morning, 16.9N 122.0W Sun
afternoon, 17.3N 123.8W Mon morning, 17.6N 125.4W Mon afternoon,
and 18.1N 127.0W Tue morning. Karina will change little in
intensity as it moves to 19.3N 129.9W early Wed. Tropical Storm 
Lowell will move to 12.8N 136.3W this afternoon, 12.9N 139.0W 
Sun morning, then move west of 140W Sun afternoon. Lowell will
continue to move west and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N 
145.0W by Mon afternoon. 

$$
Christensen