000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012105
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly-named Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 15.7N 127.0W
at 01/2100 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4 m extend eastward up to 120 nm
from the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted E of the center from 12 to 18N between 124W and 131W.
Douglas is expected to gradually turn to the northwest later this
week, continuing similar speed. Douglas is expected to remain a
tropical storm through Thu, before dry air and cooler water lead
to weakening by Fri. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website

- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 118W from 18N southward, and moving 
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
08N to 16N between 111W and 121W.

Another tropical wave is noted along 94W from Mexico southward, 
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 09N between 89W and 99W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N103W to 15N123W. An
ITCZ has developed from 09N135W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is from 01N to 09N east of 89W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
02N to 15N between 99W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas 
of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. 
Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
and seas at 2 to 4 ft generally prevail. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remaining waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in 
primarily cross- equatorial S swell. Fresh N gap winds continue
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this 
area. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the far offshore 
waters S of 12N.

For the forecast, the surface ridge that extends SE to the 
Revillagigedo Islands will drift SW and weaken through the 
remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the
Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across
these waters will maintain moderate seas into Thu night. Fresh 
to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec 
region through the weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate 
the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W. Seas are 7 
to 9 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to
6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central 
America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Moderate S winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S
of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
in the Papagayo region into the weekend, leading to occasional 
rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate 
to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands through tonight.
Thunderstorms will persist for the offshore waters from Costa 
Rica to Colombia into tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific
southeastward to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands, and is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in N to
NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, outside 
the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. East of 120W and north 
of the monsoon trough, gentle NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas 
in mixed swell prevail. Gentle to moderate mainly S winds and
seas of 6 to 8 ft in primarily S swell prevail S of the monsoon
trough. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Douglas will move to 16.7N 
127.1W Thu morning, 17.7N 127.3W Thu afternoon, then weaken to a
tropical depression near 18.8N 127.6W Fri morning. Douglas will 
become post-tropical and move to 19.7N 128.2W Fri afternoon, then
reach 20.5N 129.1W Sat morning. Post-tropical Cyclone Douglas
will be near 21.0N 130.3W Sat afternoon. Douglas will change 
little in intensity as it moves across the NW basin Sun 
afternoon.

$$
Konarik