000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180400
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from central Costa Rica across
10N110W to 07N125W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 
07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring up to 200 nm along either side of both features.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands continue to 
support gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and
moderate to fresh NW winds S of Cabo San Lazaro per recent
scatterometer data. Altimeter data confirmed moderate seas to 6
ft across the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. A surface trough 
along the Gulf of California is generating moderate to locally 
fresh SW winds over the northern portion of the Gulf with 5 ft 
seas. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the
remainder of the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable 
winds prevail with moderate seas, except slight in the southern
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a strong surface ridge will continue to 
support moderate to fresh NW to N winds with moderate to locally 
rough seas in large NW swell west of Baja California through Mon 
morning, roughest seas anticipated north of Punta Eugenia. 
Afterward, gentle to moderate NW to N winds with gradual 
subsiding seas should prevail through Thu. A low pressure moving 
across southern California will maintain fresh to strong SW winds
for the northern Gulf of California until Sun morning before 
becoming mainly gentle. Mostly gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell are expected elsewhere 
through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are across the Central America offshore
waters while gentle to moderate S winds are ongoing between the
coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate seas to 7 
ft in SW swell are across both regions. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the Central 
America offshore waters associated with the monsoon trough. 
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are possible with the 
strongest thunderstorms over the Panama offshore waters. 

For the forecast, abundant moisture is coupling with convergent 
surface winds to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa 
Rica, Panama and Colombia. This trend will continue through at 
least Mon morning. Light to gentle winds are forecast across the 
Central America offshore waters through Thu night. Gentle to 
moderate S winds will prevail between the coast of Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas in SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1032 mb located NW of area near 33N144W and its
associated ridge continue to affect the subtropical and tropical
Pacific waters W of 127W with moderate to fresh NE to E winds per
recent scatterometer data. Altimeter data show seas across these
waters are moderate, except rough to 10 ft W of 132W. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted elsewhere in a mix 
of swell.

For the forecast, a slightly tight pressure gradient will 
continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the
ITCZ and W of 120W through mid-week, although moderate to fresh
trades are forecast to continue over the tropical waters through
Thu night. The northerly swell will combine with the wind waves 
to keep and area of rough seas to 10 ft over the west-central 
waters through Tue night. A new swell event will reach the NE
subtropical waters Sun night, building seas to around 10 ft N of
25N between 120W and 130W by Mon night. This swell is forecast to
subside by Thu morning.  

$$

Chan