000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302040 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure, Invest EP95,
continues to produce a large area of convection across the 
tropical eastern Pacific, about the monsoon trough and a poorly 
defined 1005 mb center located near 13.5N125.5W. Fresh to 
locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted 
north and northwest of this feature from 11N to 19N between 120W
and 132W. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON 
TROUGH section for more details on convection. satellite imagery
suggests that convection is slowly gaining some organization, and
a tropical depression is expected to form tonight or on 
Wednesday while the system moves generally northwestward and then
northward. This system is expected to remain over the western 
portion of the East Pacific waters, to the W of 120W. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of 
the week, ending its chances of development. This system has a 
high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 
days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 111W from 18N southward, and moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 18.5N between 109W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 05N80W to 08N87W to
07N90W, then transitions to ITCZ continuing on to 08N107W. The 
monsoon trough then resumes from 09.5N112W through EP95 at 
13.5N125.5W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is from 02N to 06.5N E of 89W, from 03N to 11N between 89W and 
109W, and from 03.5N to 10N between 130W and 140W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 18.5N
between 108W and 121W, and about EP95 from 08.5N to 17.5N 
between 121W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, 
southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo 
Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja 
California waters, with 7 to 8 ft seas across the outer waters of
Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW 
to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present in the northern
Gulf, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 
ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo 
Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily 
cross-equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N gap winds 
continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to 
near 13.5N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms continue across the far offshore waters
S of 12N, offshore of the coasts of eastern Guerrero to Chiapas.

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southeastward
across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands 
will persist tonight, then begin to drift southwestward and 
weaken slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern 
will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters 
through Sat, with locally fresh winds possibly each late 
afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these 
waters will maintain moderate seas through Thu, except rough 
seas across the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte. A 
narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse 
to strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each 
night and morning through Sat. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap 
winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California today 
through midday Wed. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region
and extend offshore to near 92W and northward across southwestern 
Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate N to NE winds
continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to near 
04.5N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America
and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S swell dominate 
waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer 
to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for 
more detail on convection in the region, primarily extending from
Colombia westward to 88W.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate
to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region throughout 
the week, and then begin to weaken slightly this weekend. NE to E 
swell generated by these winds is expected to maintain moderate to 
locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, 
cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough 
seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu morning. 
Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near 
the Colombia coast, and across the southern offshore waters of Costa 
Rica and Panama through this evening, then expand northward late 
tonight through Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section about Invest Area EP95.

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific
southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo 
Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and 6
to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and 
west of 120W. Winds and seas are higher to the N and NW of Invest
EP95 as described above. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed 
moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 
ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the 
monsoon trough to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S 
winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S and SE swell 
prevail elsewhere south of 04N. 

For the forecast, regardless of development on EP95, a gradual 
increase of winds and seas will continue across the north and
northwest portions of this area of low pressure this week, as it
moves northward toward the broad high pressure ridge persisting
north of the area. Outside of this system, little changes are 
anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of
the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur 
by Wed.

$$
Stripling