779 
AXPZ20 KNHC 011520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: Large NW swell behind a cold front
will continue to propagate into the NW waters over the next few
days, causing seas to build to over 12 ft for waters N of 25N and
W of 125W into the weekend. Very rough seas will peak as high as
18 ft tonight near 30N140W. The swell will gradually decay over
the weekend, with seas falling below 12 ft by late Sun. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N85W to 05N97W. The 
ITCZ stretches from 05N97W to 10N122W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection has developed from 04N to 07N E of
87W. Scattered moderate convection is also ongoing from 08N to 
16N between 104W and 114W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure to the northeast is starting to weaken and slide
farther east, so gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have ended.
However, strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will continue
through tonight. Fresh NW winds are offshore Cabo Corrientes 
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and 
seas are slight to moderate. In the Gulf of California, light 
winds and slight seas prevail. Convection offshore Jalisco has
diminished this morning. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NNW winds offshore 
Jalisco extending northward to the mouth of the Gulf of
California will diminish to moderate speeds late Fri. Otherwise,
long period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja 
California offshore waters Sun into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building N of the region is supporting strong 
northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region. Seas of 6 to 9 
ft are within these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing 
in the Gulf of Panama, reaching as far south as 05N. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to 
support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with 
moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in the
Gulf of Panama into tonight. Mainly gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected elsewhere into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell in the northwest waters leading to very rough seas into the
weekend.

A 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 25N123W, with a trough
bisecting the low from 20N126W to 30N119W. The convection
previously associated with this features had dissipated
this morning. The impacts of gap winds are leading to fresh NE 
to E winds across a zone from 07N and 12N between 92W and 112W. 
Fresh E to SE winds are also ongoing S of the ITCZ between 113W 
and 135W. A cold front has moved into the far NW waters near
30N140W. Strong SW winds have developed ahead of the boundary
within about 120 nm. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gap winds in Tehuantepec will diminish today 
allowing winds and seas to lessen today south of that region. The
cold front will reach from 30N133W to 25N140W by tonight. Strong
winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri. By 
the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass 
waters N of 08N and W of 118W. 

$$
Konarik