000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150848
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W from 02N to 15N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 01N to 16N 
offshore SW Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby 
convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 02N to 18N, moving
slowly westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described 
below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 137W from 03N to 18N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N115W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N115W to 09N125W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave from 09N127W to 10N137W, then resumes west of another 
tropical wave from 10N138W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 94W and 110W, and 
from 06N to 13N and W of 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of 
California as troughing prevails over the Gulf of California 
near the Baja California Peninsula, with gentle SE winds south 
of there. Slight seas are in the Gulf, except higher near the 
entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
offshore waters of Mexico under weak surface ridging. Moderate 
seas prevail across the open waters.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri as high pressure 
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to 
strong Fri night into the weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens further, resulting in building seas to rough there. 
Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico 
through midweek, then returning this weekend. Fresh to strong S 
to SE winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California 
tonight into early Wed and continue through midweek as low 
pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest. Moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere, except slight in the Gulf of California. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails near northern Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas 
in SW swell prevail over the Central and South American waters, 
except rough south of the Equator and offshore Ecuador.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend as high 
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America, building 
seas to rough at times. Moderate to fresh E winds will extend 
through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador 
through midweek, and then again this weekend. Moderate to fresh N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama midweek. A SW swell will 
continue to propagate through the South American waters through 
the middle of this week, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador
and Colombia. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1038 mb high pressure well northwest of the discussion waters 
near 45N144W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt 
from 10N to 20N west of 125W, and from 10N to 16N east of 118W. 
Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W, and moderate east of 100W. 
Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across the waters
south of 05N. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas will 
continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as 
ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate through the
southern waters promoting rough seas south of 08N, through mid- 
week, then decaying through the end of the week. A new N swell 
will arrive and lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek, 
decaying by the end of the week.

$$
ERA