000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282158
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 13.7N 115.5W at 28/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft (8.0 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm
NW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest, 
and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 
day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast 
to become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a major 
hurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to 
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lowell Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 
12.5N 133.4W at 28/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind 
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 
around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
observed within 180 nm SW semicircle. Lowell is moving toward 
the northwest. A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, 
and a westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over 
the weekend. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. 
However, strengthening is expected to begin on Saturday, and 
Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W from 05N to 15N, moving
quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 89W and 98W, and 
from 10N to 14N between 96W and 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W to 11N110W. In 
addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical 
wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active
from 03N to 07N between 80W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N W of 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Karina.

Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the
outer periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands.
Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate in this area, and
Tropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to
strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and downwind to about 14N. In the Gulf of California, moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are observed N of 29N per recent
scatterometer data. Gentle winds and slight seas are occurring
across the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 14.6N 116.6W Sat morning, move to 15.9N 118.4W Sat
afternoon, 16.9N 120.1W Sun morning, 17.5N 121.9W Sun afternoon,
17.9N 123.4W Mon morning, and 18.2N 125.1W Mon afternoon. Karina
will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 128.1W
Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with 
locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to 
fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly
winds will persist in the northern Gulf of California tonight 
through Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is
forecast to form during the next day or two well to the south of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas there. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough,
mainly from from 03N to 07N between 80W and 87W. Strong gusty winds
are near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend
into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer 
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may
freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next
week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate
seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.

The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 25N131W 
with a central pressure of 1010 mb. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate seas are occurring from 27N to 30N between 127W and 
134W. An area of fresh to strong SW to W winds is south of 
Karina affecting the waters from 05N to 10N between 115W and 122W
based of recent satellite derived wind data. Elsewhere, mainly 
moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open 
waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the 
two tropical storms and Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle. Rough seas 
generated by Karina cover the waters from 04N to 19N between 
105W and 119W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of
the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 14.6N 116.6W Sat morning, move to 15.9N 118.4W Sat
afternoon, 16.9N 120.1W Sun morning, 17.5N 121.9W Sun afternoon,
17.9N 123.4W Mon morning, and 18.2N 125.1W Mon afternoon. Karina
will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 128.1W
Tue afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.6N 134.0W Sat 
morning, 12.8N 135.4W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.9W Sun morning, 
13.1N 138.6W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.4N 
140.5W Mon morning, and 13.6N 142.4W Mon afternoon. Lowell will 
change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.1N 145.6W Tue
afternoon.

$$
GR