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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 140333

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.


A well-defined low pressure system, analyzed as A 1008 mb low
on the latest surface analyzed, is located roughly about several
hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. This activity is observed to be of scattered 
moderate to isolated type intensity within 120 nm of the low in
the northeast quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 12N to 15N between 105W and 107W. Gradual development of 
this low is expected over the next several days, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by late this week while the system 
moves slowly northward. However, upper- level winds are forecast 
to become unfavorable for any further development of this 
disturbance by late this weekend. The latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for 
more information.

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The 
earlier occurrence of strong north to northeast gale force winds
across the Gulf have diminished to minimal gale force as the 
pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico has slacken. Wave
heights with the gale force winds are in the 10-14 ft range. The
gradient will slacken further overnight allowing for the gale
force winds to diminish to strong speeds. Wave heights at that 
time will subside to 8-10 ft. Both global and regional models 
are consisting forecasting another strong gale force wind event 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from Fri through Sat night.
See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website 
MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details.


A tropical wave with axis along 84W and north of 04N is moving 
westward at about 10 kt. Earlier observed scattered moderate 
convection with this have dissipated. Only isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm either side the axis from 
05N to 10N.


The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low over
northwestern Colombia westward to across Panama and to 
09N84W to 08N93W to low pressure of 1008 mb near 11N111W 
to 14N121W to low pressure near 12N125W 1009 mb and to 08N131W, 
where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and 
continues to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 103W and
1087W and within 60 nm of the trough between 92W and 96W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
an ongoing gale force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, 
supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights 
of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Thu. Winds and 
seas will diminish across the waters west of Cabo Corrientes 
later today as high pressure in northern Mexico shifts eastward.
Light and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California 
through Sat. 


Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across 
the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador 
the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft 
range. Large north to northeast swell generated from the present 
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event is currently 
reaching the western and southern sections of the Guatemala 
offshore waters, with wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft. 
These wave heights will gradually subside through Thu morning
as the winds diminish in the Tehuantepec area and the large 
area of swell downstream from the Gulf decays.


A dissipating frontal trough extends from near 32N134W to 
24N140W. No significant winds and wave heights are associated
with this trough. Large-long period northwest well associated 
with an intense low pressure system in the central north Pacific 
will reach the far northwestern waters on Thu, with wave heights 
peaking near 12 ft in the far northwest corner of the area by Thu

Low pressure of 1009 mb is observed near 13N126W. Latest 
satellite imagery shows what appears to be an exposed low-level 
circulation, with isolated showers and thunderstorms within 120 
nm of the low in the southeast and west quadrants. Ascat data 
from Wed afternoon highlighted 20-25 kt northeast winds in the 
northwest quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are 
expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development of 
this disturbance while it moves generally in a westward motion.