444 
AXPZ20 KNHC 252154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system over the
next few days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, just offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance of
development through the next seven days.

Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1007 mb low pressure 
near 09N92W to 12N115W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
05N to 10N east of 88W, and from 12N to 14N between 92W and 98W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent satellite scatterometer data showed strong to near- 
gale force N gap winds across and downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to near 14N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. These winds 
are due to a tight pressure gradient between modest high pressure
over eastern Mexico and 1007 mb low pressure along the monsoon 
trough near 09N92W. Elsewhere, broad high pressure is control of 
the northeastern Pacific north of 15N and west of 110W. This 
pattern is supporting mainly moderate NW breezes north of 20N 
except for locally fresh winds near Punta Eugenia and fresh 
westerly winds funneling around the coast of Cabo San Lucas. 
Winds are generally light to gentle SW to W inside the Gulf of 
California. Seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail off Baja California, 1 to 3
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 5 ft off southern Mexico 
outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where southerly swell 
continues. 

For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds will continue 
across the Tehuantepec area through Thu then gradually diminish 
Fri as low pressure to the west of Papagayo attempts to become 
better organized, while shifting south of Tehuantepec through 
Fri. Farther north, broad high pressure will continue to support 
moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds across the Baja 
California waters through Thu evening as high pressure remains 
centered to the northwest. Looking ahead, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and rough seas are expected off Oaxaca by late Sat, 
expanding to the nearshore waters of Guerrero by late Sun as the 
low pressure shifts westward and offshore of the coasts. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this low pressure system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium
chance of development through the next 48 hours, and a high 
chance of development within the next seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon
trough off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong E
winds and rough seas are ongoing off Guatemala and El Salvador to
the north of 1007 mb low pressure centered near 09N92W. Gentle 
to moderate SW to W breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell are 
noted elsewhere south of 10N. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is occurring across the waters of Costa Rica and much 
of Panama, and extends southwestward and offshore to 05.5N and 
westward to 88W.

For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will persist off Guatemala
and El Salvador through Thu associated with the broad 1007 mb 
low pressure near 09N92W. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this low pressure system, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of 
southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of development within 
the next two days, but a high chance within the next seven days. 
Cross- equatorial S swell will build across the regional waters 
Fri night through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the pattern over the northeast
Pacific north of 15N and west of 110W, centered on a 1031 mb 
high near 37N148W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas east of 130W, and moderate to 
fresh NE trade winds and seas 5 to 8 ft west of 130W. Moderate S 
to SW winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in S to SW swell are noted south 
of 10N, with gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell noted 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are 
expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through
Fri night, then will diminish slightly over the weekend as high
pressure north of the area begins to drift NE. Seas north of 10N
will subside modestly through Thu. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters over the next 
several days, promoting rough seas to 8 ft south of 06N over the
weekend.

$$
Christensen