000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042031
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: Very large NW swell persists over
the waters north of 28N between 126W and 135W, associated with a
gale center well north of the region. The very rough seas 
induced by this swell will subside below 12 ft this evening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 07N90W to 06N99W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N99W to 09N122W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 08N east of 84W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northerly gap winds are ongoing over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with high pressure building north of the 
area. Farther N, NW winds ahead of a weak surface are moderate to
fresh offshore Baja California Sur, extending south to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Long period NW swell is moving into waters
offshore Baja California Norte, leading to rough seas. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for the 
Gulf of California where slight seas are present. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through tonight, then diminish
as the high pressure to the north weakens. Gap winds may return
Tue night. A weak pressure gradient will support gentle to 
moderate breezes elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Long 
period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California 
offshore waters through Mon, with mainly moderate seas 
elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region as well as in the
Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight through Mon night, with moderate to fresh pulses 
thereafter. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate 
seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 28N between 126W and 135W leading to very rough 
combined seas into this evening.

A trough roughly along 125W from 12N to 24N is supporting fresh
NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft from 12N to 15N between 121W and
125W. Another trough extends from 30N128W to 22N140W. Winds on
both sides of the trough are moderate or weak, but shift from NE
to NW as the eastward-moving trough passes. For the remainder of
the area, gentle to moderate mainly easterly winds dominate. NW
of a Guadalupe Island to 11N140W line, rough seas in NW swell
dominate, with moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the trough over the NW waters will move east
tonight then dissipate Mon near the Baja California coast. A cold
front will enter the northern waters Mon, cross 120W Tue, then
approach Baja California Wed. This front will disrupt the
standard subtropical ridge N of 20N, maintaining gentle to
moderate breezes across the region through early this week,
before slightly increased and more trade-wind dominant winds 
return for the latter portions of the week. 

$$
Konarik