000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W, extending from the Gulf
of Tehuantepec southward to 06N, moving westward around 5 to 10 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring on either side of
the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N94W to 12N106W to 
07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found 
N of 03N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, N of 04N between 80W
and 100W, and from 06N to 10N W of 110W. Clusters of moderate to
strong convection are along the coastal waters from NW Costa 
Rica to near Acapulco, Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located well N of area extends a
ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California, reaching
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures inland Mexico supports gentle to 
moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds S of Cabo San Lazaro. However, fresh to strong NW 
winds are noted per recent scatterometer data in the vicinity of 
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 
7 to 8 ft in NW swell across the outer offshore waters N of Punta
Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, light SW to W winds and slight
seas are noted, except gentle to moderate southerly winds over 
the northern part of the Gulf. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are 
observed near the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate W to NW winds 
are parallel to the coast between Jalisco and Guerrero with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light
westerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California this week 
producing gentle to moderate NW winds. Pulsing winds to 20 kt 
are expected near Cabo San Lucas during the overnight and early
morning hours through Thu night. Moderate to rough seas in NW to
N swell will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Baja California on Wed while gradually subsiding. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the 
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression will likely form over the 
weekend as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system 
a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area, resulting in 
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of 05N, and light to 
gentle winds N of 05N. Cross-equatorial SW swell is producing 
moderate seas across the forecast waters.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds 
will occur south of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with
gentle to locally moderate winds expected to the north. Moderate
seas in cross-equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters
into this weekend. Looking ahead, moderate to occasionally fresh
NE to E winds are slated to develop in the Gulf of Papagayo by 
late week. Abundant tropical moisture will persist across the 
region increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms 
through at least Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A strong 1037 mb high pressure system is centered across the NE 
Pacific well north of the area near 42N142W, and extends a ridge 
southward over the forecast region, covering most of the waters N
of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. This system is generating
gentle to moderate winds over the forecast waters, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the NW waters,
particularly N of 25N and W of 130W. Rough seas in N swell are 
affecting the waters N of 22N W of 120W, with seas peaking 12 ft
between 125W and 135W based on altimeter data. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain nearly
stationary through Fri while weakening some. and weaken modestly
through the end of the week, remaining well N of the forecast 
region. As a result, fresh N to NE winds are forecast to persist 
over the NW part of the forecast region through early Fri. The 
swell event, generated by strong to gale force N winds between 
the above mentioned strong high pressure and lower pressures over
central California, will continue to propagate across the northern
forecast waters through Fri. Seas of 8 ft or greater are forecast
to dominate most of the waters NW of a line from 30N124W to 25N130W
to 23N140W by tonight, then slowly subside through late Fri. 

$$
GR