935 
AXPZ20 KNHC 242044
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1009 mb low pressure
near 09N91W to 12N105W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active 
from 07N to 09N between 84W and 86W, from 10N to 13N between 91W
and 94W, and from 12N to 13N between 111W and 113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong 
winds persisting across and downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. These winds are due to a tight pressure gradient 
between modest high pressure over the eastern United States, and 
1009 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 09N91W. Seas 
are estimated to be about 5 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
accordingly. Elsewhere, broad high pressure is control from the 
northeastern Pacific north of 15N and west of 120W. This pattern 
is supporting gentle to moderate breezes north of 20N except for 
possibly fresh winds funneling off the coast of Cabo San Lucas. 
Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft off Baja California, 2 to 4 ft in the
Gulf of California, and 4 to 5 ft off southern Mexico outside of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a component of southerly swell.

For the forecast, the strong northerly gap winds will continue 
across the Tehuantepec area through Thu as low pressure develops 
to the west of Papagayo, and become better organized as it shifts
south of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night. Expect the fresh to 
strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through mid week. Looking ahead, expect fresh winds and rough 
seas off western Oaxaca by late Fri, expanding to off Guerrero by
Sat as the low pressure shifts westward. Farther north, broad 
high pressure will continue to support moderate to occasionally 
fresh NW winds across the Baja California waters through Thu as 
high pressure continues to the northwest. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E
gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, connecting to another area
of strong to near-gale force winds farther west within 90 nm to 
the north of a broad 1009 mb low pressure area centered near
09N91W. The scatterometer pass also observed a small area of gale
force winds near 10N90W. This was in an area of thunderstorms at
the time of the satellite pass, and these winds have likely
diminished since that time, although strong to near-gale force
winds persist north of the low pressure. Seas are likely 5 to 8
ft in the Gulf of Papagayo, and 8 to 10 ft to the north of the
low pressure. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell are 
noted elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
continues off the Pacific coast of Panama associated with an 
active monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue 
across the Papagayo region through Wed as 1009 mb low pressure 
near 09N91W gradually becomes better organized, and shifts 
slowly westward. The fresh to strong winds will expand across the
waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through Wed as the 
low moves south of those waters. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this low pressure system, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or 
over the weekend while the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico. There is a low 
chance of development within the next two days, but a high 
chance within the next seven days. Cross-equatorial S swell will 
build across the regional waters Fri night through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the pattern over the northeast
Pacific north of 15N and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in that 
area, except for fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft from 10N to
15N west of 135W. Moderate S to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in S
to SW swell are noted south of 10N, with gentle breezes and 4 to
6 ft seas in SW swell noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are 
expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through Thu
as high pressure continues to the northwest. Winds will diminish
slightly east of 130W on Wed as the high weakens. Seas north of 
10N will subside modestly through Thu. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters over the next 
several days, promoting rough seas to 8 ft south of 05N through 
late this week.

$$
Christensen