590 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160848
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 06N130W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N and E of 
119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This 
system supports moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja 
California peninsula, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate 
winds are blowing across the central and south parts of the Gulf 
of California. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, 
including the northern Gulf of California, light winds prevail. 
Moderate seas are noted elsewhere except for slight seas in the 
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the 
weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California 
through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW 
winds and moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A 
low pres is forecast to develop near the northern Gulf of 
California by tonight producing fresh to strong S to SW winds 
through Sat night. Rough seas will develop over the offshore 
waters of California by fresh to strong northerly winds, reaching  
the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon. The swell will
continue to propagate southward, mainly across the waters 
between 118W and 130W on Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light 
to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Winds and 
seas are higher near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough. 
Moderate seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 
while rough seas prevail south and SW of the Galapagos Islands. 
Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail in SW swell.

For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and
unstable southerly wind flow is expected to persist across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the 
upcoming weekend, supporting the development of showers and 
thunderstorms over this area. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail across the region through Sun, then diminish on Mon. 
Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A surface ridge prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and 
west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W, and a small
area of strong winds W of 138W. Rough seas are noted from 10N to
26N W of 130W primarily in N swell. Another area of rough seas is
noted N of 28N and E of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W 
through early next week. The NW swell will combine with seas from
trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W through at least Sat. A
new swell event will reach the N waters Sun night into Mon, 
building rough seas N of 25N between 115W and 130W by late Mon.


$$
ERA