AXPZ20 KNHC 051542
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong area of high pressure
building in the wake of a cold front that is moving across the
Gulf of Mexico will bring another gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region beginning Saturday afternoon. Northerly winds
will rapidly increase to gale force by Saturday evening. Gale
conditions are forecast to persist through Tue night, with winds
expected to peak around 45 kt and seas building up to about 17
ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 05N92W to 04N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity
of the boundary between 102W and 116W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Long-period NW swell will reach the offshore waters N of Punta
Eugenia tonight and Saturday, building seas to 8-12 ft. Although
seas could subside a little later this weekend and Monday,
another NW swell event is expected by Tuesday, which will likely
elevate seas again. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh NW-N
winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California
during the next several days.
Fresh to strong NW winds will continue through the evening
across the southern and central portions of the Gulf of
California, but these winds should subside by tonight as the
pressure gradient weakens across the region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas generally in the 6-8 ft
range will continue across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Winds are expected to increase to 30 kt, with seas likely
building to 8 or 10 ft Mon through Tue as a strong high pressure
builds over the western Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf
of Panama through at least Mon, with seas building to 8 ft near
Outside of the gap wind areas, light to gentle variable winds
with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the
weekend. No significant swell events are forecast during the
next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weather conditions are generally quiet across the region today,
with no notable areas of showers and thunderstorms apparent.
Although the weather conditions are tranquil, much of the region
is expected to have elevated seas during the next few days due
to long-period NW swell that is forecast to move through the
area. Seas are currently as high as 17 ft over the far NW waters,
and a continuation of the NW swell train will keep seas fairly
high through the weekend over much of the area, highest over the
Trade winds are expected to increase a little this weekend and
early next week across the deep tropics as high pressure builds
to the north of the area.