773 
AXPZ20 KNHC 301602
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Shower activity associated 
with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves 
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical 
development within the next 48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details about these invest areas.

Tsunami Threat: A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake occurred at
2325 UTC July 29 off the east coast of Kamchatka, Russia. Tsunami
waves have been observed, and waves reaching more than 3 M above
the tide level are possible along some coasts of Ecuador. Tsunami
waves reaching 1 to 3 M above the tide level are possible along
some coasts of Costa Rica. Tsunami waves reaching 0.3 to 1 M
above the tide level are possible along some coasts in Central
and South America. Mariners and coastal interests should consult
local authorities and visit www.tsunami.gov for the latest 
information and guidance. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 83W, from 04N northward through
eastern Costa Rica into the western Caribbean, moving to the west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 04N to 08N east of 88W.

A tropical wave axis is along 92W, from 03N northward to the 
Guatemala-Mexico border, moving to the west around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 06N to 
15N between 88W and 100W. 

A tropical wave axis is along 126W, from 04N to 18N, moving to
the west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N to 13N between 123W and 126W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1008 mb low near
12N109W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to beyond
11N140W. Widespread moderate to locally strong convection is
noted from 05N to 20N between 100W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec as high pressure builds over the northwestern Gulf of
America. Seas to 8 ft are noted in this region via altimeter 
satellite data. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE to NE winds 
and locally rough seas are occurring well offshore of Jalisco 
through Michoacan as EP99 strengthens to the southwest. 
Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low centered near 30.5N114W extends a trough
southeastward through the Gulf of California into Baja 
California Sur. The pressure gradient between these features and 
ridging to the west is leading to moderate to fresh NW winds and 
moderate seas offshore of Baja north of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle 
to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf 
of California. 

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure, EP99, is located 
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward 
around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast 
of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical development within 
the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N to NE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this weekend, with the 
strongest winds occurring each night and early morning. Winds 
will diminish in this region thereafter. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh NW winds, with locally strong winds, will occur offshore of
Baja California through this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds and moderate seas are 
noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails in the 
south-central Caribbean, and a tropical wave moves westward 
through Central America. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are 
ongoing south of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle winds 
noted to the north. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in S swell dominate the 
regional waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to NE gap winds
will occur in the Gulf of Papagayo into this weekend as low 
pressure dominates the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh E winds will extend beyond the Papagayo region
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala into 
Sat. Looking ahead, fresh S winds are expected offshore of 
Ecuador and southern Colombia on Fri. A long-period S to SW swell
will move through the South American waters Fri into this 
weekend, leading to rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas will slowly subside on Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for information on Invest
area EP99.

Fresh to strong S to NE winds and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are 
occurring near EP99, centered near 12N109W. Farther west, fresh 
to locally strong NE winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted from 10N 
to 20N west of 135W, to the east of EP98, centered west of the 
area near 11N142W. The rest of the eastern Pacific north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ is dominated by ridging, stemming from a 
1026 mb high centered near 32N139W. Gentle to moderate NE winds 
are noted north of 25N and west of 130W, near the center of the 
high pressure, while moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 7 
ft seas are noted over the rest of the region. South of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ, away from EP98 and EP99, moderate to 
locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure, EP99, is located 
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward 
around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast 
of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical development within 
the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds
occurring east of EP98, centered west of 140W, will diminish
slowly on Thu. Rough seas in this region will continue through
Thu and expand farther east toward 130W on Fri and Sat. 
Widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail north of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ into this weekend as high pressure 
persists north of the region. 

$$
ADAMS