773
AXPZ20 KNHC 301602
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Shower activity associated
with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical
development within the next 48 hours.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details about these invest areas.
Tsunami Threat: A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake occurred at
2325 UTC July 29 off the east coast of Kamchatka, Russia. Tsunami
waves have been observed, and waves reaching more than 3 M above
the tide level are possible along some coasts of Ecuador. Tsunami
waves reaching 1 to 3 M above the tide level are possible along
some coasts of Costa Rica. Tsunami waves reaching 0.3 to 1 M
above the tide level are possible along some coasts in Central
and South America. Mariners and coastal interests should consult
local authorities and visit www.tsunami.gov for the latest
information and guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is along 83W, from 04N northward through
eastern Costa Rica into the western Caribbean, moving to the west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 04N to 08N east of 88W.
A tropical wave axis is along 92W, from 03N northward to the
Guatemala-Mexico border, moving to the west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 06N to
15N between 88W and 100W.
A tropical wave axis is along 126W, from 04N to 18N, moving to
the west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N to 13N between 123W and 126W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1008 mb low near
12N109W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to beyond
11N140W. Widespread moderate to locally strong convection is
noted from 05N to 20N between 100W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as high pressure builds over the northwestern Gulf of
America. Seas to 8 ft are noted in this region via altimeter
satellite data. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE to NE winds
and locally rough seas are occurring well offshore of Jalisco
through Michoacan as EP99 strengthens to the southwest.
Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low centered near 30.5N114W extends a trough
southeastward through the Gulf of California into Baja
California Sur. The pressure gradient between these features and
ridging to the west is leading to moderate to fresh NW winds and
moderate seas offshore of Baja north of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle
to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf
of California.
For the forecast, a trough of low pressure, EP99, is located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical development within
the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N to NE winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this weekend, with the
strongest winds occurring each night and early morning. Winds
will diminish in this region thereafter. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh NW winds, with locally strong winds, will occur offshore of
Baja California through this weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds and moderate seas are
noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails in the
south-central Caribbean, and a tropical wave moves westward
through Central America. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are
ongoing south of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle winds
noted to the north. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in S swell dominate the
regional waters.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to NE gap winds
will occur in the Gulf of Papagayo into this weekend as low
pressure dominates the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
occasionally fresh E winds will extend beyond the Papagayo region
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala into
Sat. Looking ahead, fresh S winds are expected offshore of
Ecuador and southern Colombia on Fri. A long-period S to SW swell
will move through the South American waters Fri into this
weekend, leading to rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Seas will slowly subside on Sun.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features section above for information on Invest
area EP99.
Fresh to strong S to NE winds and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are
occurring near EP99, centered near 12N109W. Farther west, fresh
to locally strong NE winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted from 10N
to 20N west of 135W, to the east of EP98, centered west of the
area near 11N142W. The rest of the eastern Pacific north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ is dominated by ridging, stemming from a
1026 mb high centered near 32N139W. Gentle to moderate NE winds
are noted north of 25N and west of 130W, near the center of the
high pressure, while moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 7
ft seas are noted over the rest of the region. South of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, away from EP98 and EP99, moderate to
locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a trough of low pressure, EP99, is located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical development within
the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds
occurring east of EP98, centered west of 140W, will diminish
slowly on Thu. Rough seas in this region will continue through
Thu and expand farther east toward 130W on Fri and Sat.
Widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ into this weekend as high pressure
persists north of the region.
$$
ADAMS