000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221522
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 110W from 04N to 
15N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 106W and 
114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific near 10N86W to 
12N105W to 08N116W. The ITCZ continues from 08N116W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
06N to 15N between 96W and 107W, and from 04N to 15N and west of
122W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends over the Mexico offshore waters, 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California 
waters and offshore of southern Mexico, as noted on recent 
scatterometer satellite data. Recent altimeter data show rough 
seas north of Punta Eugenia, generated by fresh winds offshore 
of Southern California. Moderate seas are noted across the 
waters offshore of Baja California Sur and southern Mexico. 
Elsewhere, troughing prevails in the Gulf of California, 
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas, highest at 
the entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh NW winds will occur each night 
near Cabo San Lucas as troughing resides over Baja California 
Sur. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected 
north of Punta Eugenia into Sat, with pulsing winds expected 
offshore of much of the peninsula Sat into early next week. In 
the northern Gulf of California, winds will pulse to strong 
speeds nightly into this weekend. Rough seas in NW swell will 
prevail offshore of Baja California Norte through Sat before seas
slowly subside into next week. 

In the extended forecast, an area of low pressure is likely to 
form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern 
coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form around the 
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of development within 
the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low 
pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Otherwise, mainly 
gentle winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough, with 
gentle to moderate SE to SW winds occurring to the south, as seen
on scatterometer data. Moderate seas in SW swell are noted 
offshore of Central America and Colombia, and rough seas are 
occurring offshore of Ecuador, with the highest seas occurring 
south of the Galapagos Islands, as noted on altimeter data. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through this weekend as low pressure prevails over 
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds may extend beyond
the Papagayo region, impacting areas well offshore of Guatemala 
and El Salvador. Elsewhere, a long-period SW swell is slated to 
move through the South American waters through this weekend, 
leading to rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Surface ridging dominates the east Pacific waters, anchored by a
1034 mb high centered north of the area near 39N165W. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas, as noted by SOFAR buoy
data, are occurring north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Fresh 
NE winds occurring around 10N, west of 120W, are generating rough
seas. Elsewhere, altimeter satellite data show rough seas in N 
swell north of 24N and east of 135W. Farther south, a long-period
SW swell is producing rough seas over the equatorial waters, 
with the highest seas noted south of the equator. Otherwise, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through Fri as high pressure
prevails to the north. Rough seas generated by trade winds 
surrounding 10N will continue through Fri before subsiding this 
weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas occurring well offshore of Baja 
California, north of 24N and east of 135W, will prevail into 
early Sat. The high pressure to the north is slated to weaken 
this weekend, supporting mainly moderate winds north of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Farther south, rough seas generated by a 
long-period SW swell will occur south of 05N into early next 
week.

$$
ERA