000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051421
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico and 
the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- 
force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale- 
force winds are forecast to continue through Sat night, 
potentially peaking at 40-45 kt today and tonight. Rough to very
rough seas will accompany these winds, peaking around 18 ft.
Strong to near gale-force winds will then prevail there into
early next week.

Significant W-NW Swell Event: Rough seas of 12 ft or greater 
cover the waters NW of a line from 30N132W to 20N140W and are 
currently peaking near 19 ft at 30N140W. These very rough seas 
will propagate southeast to cover the waters west of a line from 
30N125W to 14N140W by early Fri. Seas will then gradually 
subside to just below 12 ft by early Sat, when a large area of 
seas 8 ft or greater covers much of the waters west of 110W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N90W to 03.5N108W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03.5N108W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between
77W and 79W, and from 09N to 15N between 105W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section above for more details.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate NW-N winds are 
noted in the southern Gulf of California to southeast of the 
entrance of the Gulf. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker 
with moderate seas, except slight to moderate in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of 
large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte 
the end of the week, spreading across the waters W of 100W during
the upcoming weekend before decaying, with another set arriving
off Baja California Norte early next week. Winds may pulse to 
moderate fresh from near the southern Gulf of California and Cabo
San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes at times due to a locally 
tight pressure gradient.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate 
NW-N winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend and into early next 
week. Winds may reach minimal gale-force during the upcoming 
weekend due to a similar weather pattern as the recent gale-force
gap wind event. Rough seas will accompany these winds. A gale- 
force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will produce rough seas well 
offshore the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters today 
through Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will pulse for the remainder of the week, then may
increase to fresh to strong this weekend into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A Significant W-NW Swell is over the NW waters. Please see the 
Special Features section above for more details.

Aside from the large swells discussed above, gentle to moderate 
winds with moderate seas in mixed swell prevail.

For the forecast, aside from the large W-NW swells described in 
the Special Features, high pressure is forecast to build over the
waters north of 20N Fri through the upcoming weekend and into
early next week, with fresh to strong trades possible from 07N 
to 20N and west of 110W. Rough seas are possible over the open 
waters west of the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late in the week and into the weekend, with the next 
gale-force gap wind events possible there. A cold front may move 
southeast of 30N140W early next week ushering in fresh to strong 
winds and reinforcing NW swells in the NW corner of the waters 
behind it.

$$
Lewitsky