000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020910
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: A complex 997 mb low pressure system
is centered north of the area near 41N137W. Near-storm force
winds near the low center have been supporting large NW swell
reaching the discussion waters south of 30N. A recent Sofar buoy
near 30N140W indicated combined seas there in excess of 14 ft.
Additional NW swell reaching as high as 18 ft will arrive into
the waters north of 26N and west of 135W over the next several
hours. The large swell in excess of 12 ft will spread eastward
covering the waters north of 25N and west of 125W through late
Sat. The swell will also be gradually subsiding as it spreads
eastward, and should be below 12 ft by late Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 06N90W to 
06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 11N130W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 
07N east of 80W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1020 mb high pressure over the central Gulf of America is 
forcing strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 
associated rough seas. Farther north, 1017 mb high pressure is 
centered west of Baja California near 23N114W. This pattern is 
supporting fresh to strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, where 
seas are are peaking near 7 ft. Gentle breezes and moderate seas 
primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish early this morning, as high pressure 
north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Fresh to strong gap
winds may return to Tehuantepec Sun and Mon. Farther north,
fresh to locally strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes will
diminish this morning. Long period NW swell will bring rough 
seas to the Baja California offshore waters Sat night through 
Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting strong NE to E 
gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, 
reaching as far south as 05N. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to 
rough seas today, then diminish. Winds will pulse to fresh in the
Gulf of Panama into tonight. As the high weakens, these winds 
will diminish in both areas, but may return starting Sun. Mainly 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas into the weekend.

Seas to 7 ft are noted from 05N to 10N between 90W and 115W, 
due in part to earlier gap wind events from the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. Farther northwest, a recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force SW
winds within 120 nm east of a cold front extending from 30N132W 
to 24N140W. Strong NW winds follow the front as well. 1017 mb 
high pressure is centered near 25N123W. A surface trough is 
analyzed over the tropical waters from 18N127W to 12N135W. 
Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated fresh W to SW 
winds following the front mainly south of 10N and west of 130W. 
Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the seas over the deep tropics east of 115W
will subside today. Farther northwest, the cold front will 
gradually weaken as it continues to move eastward over the waters
north of 25N through Sat. A reinforcing front will follow, but 
also weaken as it moves eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking 
ahead, another front will enter the waters east of 130W by Mon 
night and approach 120W through late Tue. These fronts will 
disrupt the standard subtropical ridge north of 20N, maintaining
gentle to moderate breezes across the region into early next 
week. 

$$
Christensen