000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241606
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 99.5W from 03N to 17N into southern
Guerrero, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 
96W to 108W.

A tropical wave axis is near 123.5W from 03N to 17N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 08N
to 15N between 117W to 131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 08N108W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N108W to 10N121W, and resumes from 11N126W to 
11N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N 
between 83W to 87W, and from 08N to 15N between 132W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California 
through Baja California Sur, while broad ridging covers the 
waters offshore of the peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh N to 
NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring offshore of Baja as a 
result of this pressure gradient, including near Cabo San Lucas. 
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds 
in the Gulf of America. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds 
prevail over the rest of the waters. Seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW 
swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico, with 1 to 2 ft seas 
in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will occur in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, and pulsing fresh to 
occasionally strong N winds are expected each night and morning 
through Sun morning. Looking ahead, sustained strong to 
occasionally near-gale force winds and locally rough seas will 
develop in this region Sun night into next week. Elsewhere, fresh
to locally strong NW winds are expected offshore of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro this evening through this 
weekend as the pressure gradient builds between troughing over 
the Gulf of California and high pressure to the west. Locally 
rough seas in NW swell may accompany these winds. Winds and seas 
will diminish early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. 
Moderate to locally fresh E winds extend beyond the Papagayo 
region through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. 
Elsewhere, a surface trough extending from 06N83W to 06N91W is 
promoting heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore of Panama and 
Costa Rica. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas are
likely near convection. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW 
swell are noted through the regional waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo through this weekend as low pressure
prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh E winds will also extend through the waters offshore of El
Salvador and Guatemala today. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally
fresh S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon trough
through this weekend. Moderate seas in S to SW swell are expected
across the Central and South American waters into next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1019 mb low is centered north of the area near 33N131W, and 
surface ridging extends to the east and west of the low. Gentle 
winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are occurring north of 25N near these
features. Farther south, ridging is present south of 25N to the 
ITCZ, and a tropical wave axis is noted near 123.5W from 03N to 
17N. The pressure gradient between these features is leading to 
moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas from 10N to 20N west of
115W, strongest near and west of the wave. Elsewhere, moderate 
to fresh SE winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Locally rough seas in SE swell are noted south of 05N and 
west of 120W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft occurring elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds 
will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 25N today, 
with moderate winds expanding farther north this weekend as high 
pressure strengthens north of the area. Rough seas generated by 
fresh winds will occur from 10N to 15N west of 125W through this 
weekend, and additional rough seas may develop south of the ITCZ 
this weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast 
to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this 
weekend. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible and a 
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally 
westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance of formation 
within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 
days. 

$$
ADAMS