000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 119W from 02N to 17N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 19N between 110W and 128W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N93W to 07N103W. The
ITCZ begins near 07N103W and continue to 10N117W then continues
from 11N120W to 09N133W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is N of 03N E of 81W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N to 16N between 85W and 102W, and
from 05N to 13N between 128W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California with a 
broad and expansive ridge west of Baja California. This pressure 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the 
Baja California offshore waters. A surface trough in the Bay of 
Campeche continues to support a gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with fresh to locally strong NNE winds reaching as 
far as 12N. Seas in Tehuantepec are moderate to 6 ft in SW swell. 
In the Gulf of California, and across the SW Mexican offshore 
waters, winds are light to gentle and seas are moderate to 6 ft, 
except to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu as a 
diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate 
to fresh there thereafter, possibly increasing back to fresh to 
strong early next week. Winds are likely to freshen west of Baja 
California beginning later today and tonight as the pressure 
gradient tightens slightly, then increase to fresh to strong 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week and into 
the weekend. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of 
the weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters, 
diminishing to 3 to 5 ft outside of off Baja California Norte by 
the weekend. Seas will be 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California 
through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft. The fetch of these
winds reaches the outer half of the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters, supporting seas to 6 ft over this area as well.
Elsewhere, across the remainder Central America offshore waters
and the waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos, winds are light
to gentle and seas 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Heavy showers and tstms  
are over the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica,
as well as now within 150 nm of the coasts of Guatemala and El 
Salvador where locally higher winds and seas are likely.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through today,
then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through Thu. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south
of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will 
subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then 
build back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 23N117W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge as 
described above, near 119W. Winds near 140W near a departed wave
are fresh to locally strong, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in the 
vicinity. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere from roughly 10N
to 19N between 110W and 140W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, 
along with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 
winds are moderate to locally fresh, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in 
mixed southerly swell.

For the forecast, seas of 8 to 10 ft will linger in the wake of 
a departing tropical wave through the end of the week as the 
the wave near 119W moves westward. Little change in seas is 
forecast elsewhere. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will 
linger from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N 
through the week until the tropical wave exits, with little 
change in winds expected elsewhere.

$$
Ramos