000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272053
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 16.6N 113.9W at 27/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with
gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are near 43 ft or 13 m. Numerous 
strong convection is noted within 75 nm in the E semicircle, and
within 60 nm in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate convection 
is noted elsewhere within 210 nm of the center, except within 150
nm in the NW quadrant. Genevieve is moving toward the northwest.
A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease 
in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this afternoon, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by 
tonight through the remainder of the week. Swells generated by 
Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico and southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula, 
and will spread northward along the remainder of the west coast 
of the Baja California Peninsula by tonight. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please 
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 99W, south of 15N just off the coast of
southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09.5N between 99W and
103W, and from 10N to 15N between 99W and 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 10N75.5W to 07N11W to 09N87W to 07N98W to
11N107.5W, then resumes SW of Genevieve from 10.5N114.5W to
04N129W to 05N138W. The ITCZ extends from 05N138W to beyond
05N140W. Other than the convection mentioned with Genevieve and
the tropical wave above, scattered to numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W
and 92W, within 30 nm either side of the monsoon trough between
114.5W and 125W, and from 00N to 08N between 125W and 140W.
Similar convection is noted within 180 nm of the coast of
Mexico between 100W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Major Hurricane Genevieve, currently located SSW of the
Revillagigedo Islands, along with any associated convection.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
sections above for information about additional convection in 
the region.

Away form the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW
winds associated with high pressure building in from the
northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in 
the Gulf of California, and moderate in the remaining offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 17.5N 115.0W 
Tue morning, 18.2N 116.6W Tue afternoon, 18.7N 118.2W Wed 
morning, 19.3N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 20.1N 121.8W Thu morning, 
and 21.0N 124.2W Thu afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a 
tropical storm over 22.6N 129.3W Fri afternoon. Large seas 
associated with Genevieve will finally pull away from the 
offshore waters of Baja California by the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely 
tonight through Wed night nearshore Baja California and also in 
the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the 
west of the Baja California Peninsula, with locally fresh to 
strong SE winds in the northern Gulf late tonight, likely due to 
convection moving off mainland Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for 
information about convection in the region. 

High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly 
gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent, except locally rough south-southwest of the
Galapagos Islands in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E gap winds
along with locally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo 
region through the period. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds
are expected in the Gulf of Panama at times through mid-week. 
Locally rough seas in SW swell southwest of the Galapagos Islands
will subside by early Tue. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas in southwest swell are expected across the remainder of the
waters through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Major Hurricane Genevieve.

Hurricane Fausto continues to move away from the tropical eastern
Pacific. Fresh E winds and rough seas up to 11 ft continue to 
impact waters from 18N to 27N west of 138W. Elsewhere, for 
waters not being impacted by Fausto or Genevieve, 1026 mb high 
pressure centered near 33N136W dominates. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds are across the remainder of the waters from 08N to 
20N and west of 130W, and from 20N to 30N west of 120W. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 17.5N 115.0W 
Tue morning, 18.2N 116.6W Tue afternoon, 18.7N 118.2W Wed 
morning, 19.3N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 20.1N 121.8W Thu morning, 
and 21.0N 124.2W Thu afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a 
tropical storm over 22.6N 129.3W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Fausto
will continue to weaken as it moves further away from the basin, 
with outer associated seas diminishing below 8 ft to the east of
140W late tonight. The rough seas over the south-central waters
will gradually subside through early Tue. Little change in marine
conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters through
the end of the week and into next weekend.

$$
Lewitsky