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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



092 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220921
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 100W, south of 14N, moving west at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 11N between 97W and 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N114W to low pres 
1010 mb near 10N116W to 08N119W. The ITCZ continues from 08N119W 
to to 07N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 09N TO 12N between 113W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A slow moving cold front extends across Baja California Sur and 
the central Gulf of California. The front will stall and weaken 
today, then shift southward tonight and Sat before dissipating. 
Off the west coast of Baja California, gentle NW winds behind 
the front will become more northerly later this morning as high 
pressure builds into the region along with long period NW swell. 
This swell will propagate SE to encompass the entire offshore 
waters of Baja California, with heights of 8 to 9 ft reaching as 
far south as 20N this morning, then gradually subsiding by Sat. 
Winds may briefly increase off Cabo Corrientes late tonight as 
the high builds southward. Looking ahead, another strong gap 
wind event can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by 
late Sat into early Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE-E winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of 
Papagayo today with seas to around 5-6 ft. Offshore winds will 
then diminish to less than 15 kt through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore 
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next 
several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad area of low pressure along the convergence zone centered 
near 10N116W is drifting westward and interacting with an upper 
level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few 
thunderstorms near the low. The low will shift westward the next 
few days. Easterly winds to 20 kt are expected in the northern 
semicircle of the low as the pressure gradient increases. 

A weakening stationary front reaches from 23N115W to 20N126W to 
22N140W. The front has temporarily disrupted the subtropical 
ridge, producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds north of 
the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are possible west of 130W later in the 
week as high pressure builds north of the forecast area. This 
will coincide with long period NW swell moving into the waters N 
of 20N W of 130W, with seas peaking at 12 to 13 ft later today.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous 
deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N Sat and Sun, 
with a broad surface trough forming between 120W and 125W north 
of 18N related to this feature. A broad area of fresh to strong 
winds and building seas is expected between the trough and high 
pressure north of the area Sun into early next week due to this 
developing pattern. 

$$
Mundell