AXPZ20 KNHC 220921
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 22 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave axis is along 100W, south of 14N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 07N to 11N between 97W and 101W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N114W to low pres
1010 mb near 10N116W to 08N119W. The ITCZ continues from 08N119W
to to 07N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N TO 12N between 113W and 120W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A slow moving cold front extends across Baja California Sur and
the central Gulf of California. The front will stall and weaken
today, then shift southward tonight and Sat before dissipating.
Off the west coast of Baja California, gentle NW winds behind
the front will become more northerly later this morning as high
pressure builds into the region along with long period NW swell.
This swell will propagate SE to encompass the entire offshore
waters of Baja California, with heights of 8 to 9 ft reaching as
far south as 20N this morning, then gradually subsiding by Sat.
Winds may briefly increase off Cabo Corrientes late tonight as
the high builds southward. Looking ahead, another strong gap
wind event can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by
late Sat into early Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE-E winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of
Papagayo today with seas to around 5-6 ft. Offshore winds will
then diminish to less than 15 kt through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next
several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad area of low pressure along the convergence zone centered
near 10N116W is drifting westward and interacting with an upper
level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few
thunderstorms near the low. The low will shift westward the next
few days. Easterly winds to 20 kt are expected in the northern
semicircle of the low as the pressure gradient increases.
A weakening stationary front reaches from 23N115W to 20N126W to
22N140W. The front has temporarily disrupted the subtropical
ridge, producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds north of
the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are possible west of 130W later in the
week as high pressure builds north of the forecast area. This
will coincide with long period NW swell moving into the waters N
of 20N W of 130W, with seas peaking at 12 to 13 ft later today.
Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous
deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N Sat and Sun,
with a broad surface trough forming between 120W and 125W north
of 18N related to this feature. A broad area of fresh to strong
winds and building seas is expected between the trough and high
pressure north of the area Sun into early next week due to this