000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271039 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 27 2025

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Waters Significant Swell: Large northwest swell
continues to induce very rough seas over the waters north of 26N
and west of about 123W, with seas peaking to around 14 ft
(4.5 m) north of 28N and between 126W and 133W. Wave period with
these seas is of 12-14 sec. This swell will continue to 
propagate into the regional waters during today, with rough seas 
expected to reach as far south as 13N, and as far east as 117W. 
The swell will slowly subside through late Sun south of 28N. 
Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely to prevail through the 
weekend across the offshore waters of Baja California from 17N to
26N.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 08N79W
to 08N90W to 07N102W, where latest scatterometer satellite data 
passes indicate that it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N117W to 
09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-132W, and within 30 
nm south of the ITCZ between 137W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight partial scatterometer satellite data indicates fresh 
to strong north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to 
the gradient associated to a subtropical ridge north of the area.
Seas over these waters are in 5 to 6 ft. Farther west, a large 
area of northwest swell is generating seas of 7 to 11 ft north of
Punta Eugenia, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, 
moderate to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas are over the 
central and southern Gulf of California and off Baja California 
Sur. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the gradient associated to high pressure over 
the Gulf of America will continue to induce fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Sat morning, then diminish in 
the early afternoon. Gale conditions may be possible in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region starting late Mon night. Northwest swell 
propagating through the waters north of Punta Eugenia will be 
spreading rough seas southward across the offshore waters of the 
Baja California peninsula through the weekend. High pressure will
begin to build across the Baja waters through the weekend 
bringing a return to more typical northerly winds. Fresh to 
locally strong northwest winds are likely to develop in the Gulf 
of California Sun into Tue as high pressure strengthens across 
the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to support
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, 
extending downstream to 89W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through the period. Mostly gentle to moderate north winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama during the period. Gentle or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

Please read the Special Features section for details on significant
swell impacting much of the northern waters.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the rest of the eastern
tropical Pacific outside of the swell region described in the
Special Features section. A cold front extends from near 30N117W to 
28N119W and to 25N125W. satellite imagery shows patches of mostly 
moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms north of 23N between 115W and 123W and from 12N to 23N 
between 124W and 130W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade 
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest to north swell are north 
of the ITCZ to near 26N and west of about 125W as depicted in 
overnight scatterometer and altimeter satellite data passes. 
Moderate to occasionally fresh southeast winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft 
are south of the ITCZ and west of about 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, as low pressure north of the area weakens
inland California this will for high pressure to begin to build 
into the regional waters from the NW. Global models suggest that
a surface trough with attendant low pressure will develop across
the waters south of about 22N between 120W and 128W Sun into 
early next week. This will combine with high pressure building 
into the region resulting in a rather broad zone of increasing 
winds reaching to strong speeds roughly from 16N to 26N and west 
of the Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms. There is a possibility of these winds 
reaching gale-force speeds. Seas may reach 14 ft with these winds as 
long-period north swell gradually decays across the area. Conditions 
will improve by midweek, but before then, stay tuned to future 
weather forecast updates referencing the upcoming trough and low 
pressure feature.

$$
Aguirre