000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010957
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds of 35 kt and 
seas of 12 ft will prevail into later this morning in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec as high pressure settles into eastern Mexico. As 
the high weakens and slides east today into Fri, winds will 
gradually diminish. Marine interests transiting across or near 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec should take the necessary action to 
avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 05N94W. The 
ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 10N126W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 103W and
114W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
refer to the Special Features section for details. 

Divergent flow aloft and deep tropical moisture are inducing 
scattered moderate convection over the Jalisco offshore waters,
the entrance of the Gulf of California and the southern portion
of the Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds are offshore Cabo 
Corrientes with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or 
weaker, and seas are slight to moderate. In the Gulf of 
California, light winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds and rough seas to 12 ft will 
prevail through this morning in Tehuantepec as high pressure 
settles into eastern Mexico. The high will weaken and slide east 
today into Fri, and winds will gradually diminish. Fresh to 
locally strong NNW winds offshore Jalisco will diminish to 
moderate speeds late Fri. Otherwise, long period NW swell will 
bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo
San Lazaro Sun into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building N of the region is supporting fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region. Seas of 5
to 9 ft are within these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds are
ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, reaching as far south as 05N.
Moderate to rough seas prevail over the outer Guatemala offshores
due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event mentioned in the Special
Features. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to 
support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with 
moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in 
the Gulf of Panama through tonight. Rough seas generated by 
gales in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the 
offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through
this morning. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
are expected elsewhere into the start of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 25N123W, with a surface 
trough from the low to 20N125W. Another surface trough is roughly
along 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of this 
trough, across a broad region from 07N to 22N between 103W and 
114W. The impacts of gap winds are leading to fresh NE to E 
winds across a zone from 07N and 12N between 95W and 107W. Fresh
E to SE winds are also ongoing S of the ITCZ between 118W and 
131W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Rough seas are 
ongoing where the fresh gap-associated winds are. Elsewhere, 
generally moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, gap winds in Tehuantepec will diminish today 
allowing winds and seas to lessen today south of that region. A 
cold front is forecast to reach the far NW waters today and reach
from 30N133W to 24N139W by tonight. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected on both sides of the front through Fri. Significant NW 
swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas.
By the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass 
waters N of 10N and W of 120W. 

$$
Ramos