000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202124
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 99W from 05N to 
16N. This feature is moving westward at 5 to 10 ft. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite
imagery from 06N to 13N between 97W and 107W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 11N73W to 11N94W to 10N100W to 
08N113W. The ITCZ continues from 08N113W to beyond 05N140W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, 
scattered moderate convection can be found from 03N to 10N
between 80W and 90W, from 10N to 13N between 88W and 91W, from 
07N to 10N between 90W and 97W, and from 04N to 10N W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Baja California offshore waters, anchored 
by a 1031 mb high pressure centered well north of the area near 
41N137W. This system is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds W of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are 5 to 8 ft N of
Punta Eugenia, and 4 to 7 ft between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San 
Lucas. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including 
the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft primarily in SW swell prevail, with the exception of slight 
seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through at
least Fri, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas 
generated by strong winds offshore California will continue to 
propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia this week, leading
to moderate to rough seas across this region. In the Gulf of 
California, light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected 
through Fri. Seas are forecast to build to around 5 ft near the 
entrance to the Gulf over the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected across 
the remainder of the offshore forecast waters into this weekend. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form by this weekend
into early next week several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development
of this system thereafter while it moves westward to west- 
northwestward at around 10 to 13 kt. Currently, this system has a
low chance of tropical cyclone development through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of light to gentle
winds north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the 
offshore waters of Central and South America based on altimeter 
data.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are expected
across the Papagayo region through Sat, increasing to fresh 
speeds Sat night through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to
around 8 ft within these winds. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands, expect gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate 
to rough seas in SW swell through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds will prevail, likely increasing to moderate
speeds by Fri night. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are forecast to build to 5
to 7 ft in long period SW swell over the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1031 mb is located well north of the area near 
41N137W. Its associated ridge covers most of the waters N of the
ITCZ and W of 110W. Recent scatterometer data show pockets of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds from 18N to 26N W of 133W, and also
across the NE waters N of 29N between 122W and 126W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity 
of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across 
the trade wind zone. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in N to NE swell are 
noted N of 20N W of 120W. Farther south, seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail
from 05N to 10N west of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate roughly the 
waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Under the influence of this
system, mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is expected
tonight and Wed, with winds diminishing for the second half of 
the week as high pressure to the north weakens. N swell, related
to strong NW winds blowing W of California, will continue to 
spread across the NE waters, particularly N of 25N between 120W 
and 130W through Thu before subsiding below 8 ft Thu night into 
Fri. 

$$
GR