000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282142
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 18.0N 116.9W at 28/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are near 39 ft, or 12 m. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm in the N
semicircle, 90 nm in the SE quadrant, and 75 nm in the SW
quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is 
elsewhere within 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 360 nm in the SE
quadrant, and 210 nm in the W semicircle. Genevieve is moving 
toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected 
during the next few days. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on 
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is 
forecast over the next several days. Swells generated by 
Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells are likely
to persist for a few more days, and could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 83W, from 06N northward across the
border of Panama and Costa Rica into the western Caribbean Sea
along the coast of Nicaragua, moving westward at around 10 kt. 
Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
section below.

A tropical wave is along 104.5W, from 05N to 15N, moving 
westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06N93W to 12N107W, then
resumes SW of Genevieve from 11N121W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm SSW of
the monsoon trough between 87W and 108W, within 360 nm NNE of the
monsoon trough between 98W and 106W, and within 270 nm either
side of the monsoon trough between 125W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Genevieve with tropical storm or greater winds now just
beyond the offshore waters. Please refer to the Tropical Waves 
and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about 
additional convection in the region.

Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW
winds associated with high pressure building in from the 
northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds persist in the northern Gulf of 
California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are
slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.4N 118.1W
Wed morning, 19.0N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 19.7N 121.9W Thu 
morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.4N 124.2W Thu 
afternoon, 21.1N 126.6W Fri morning, and 21.8N 129.1W Fri 
afternoon. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves 
to 23.3N 134.6W Sat afternoon. Associated seas of rough or 
greater will finally subside across the offshore waters of Baja 
California by Thu night. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly 
westerly gap winds are likely through Wed night nearshore Baja 
California and also in the Gulf of California as high pressure 
builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. 
Fresh northerly winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 
night into the early morning hours Thu night and Fri night. 
Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may
push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte by the 
end of the upcoming weekend into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
sections above for information about convection in the region. 

High pressure northeast of the area is forcing moderate to fresh
easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend,
with occasionally rough seas. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh 
N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Wed night.
Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri. Moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder 
of the waters through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Genevieve.

For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, 1025 mb 
high pressure centered near 34N139W dominates. The pressure 
pattern between the high and Genevieve are supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E trades from offshore southern California around 
the periphery of the ridge including from 20N to 30N and west of 
120W, and from 08N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally 
fresh SE winds are found south of 07N and west of 115W. Moderate
or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the waters
away from Genevieve, locally rough along 03.4S between 95W and
120W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.4N 118.1W
Wed morning, 19.0N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 19.7N 121.9W Thu 
morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.4N 124.2W Thu 
afternoon, 21.1N 126.6W Fri morning, and 21.8N 129.1W Fri 
afternoon. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves 
to 23.3N 134.6W Sat afternoon. Away from Genevieve, little 
change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of 
the waters into next weekend. Looking ahead, fresh and rough 
northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters
off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the 
end of the upcoming weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky