273 
AXPZ20 KNHC 232205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1010 mb low centered
near 09N89W to 15N110W to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N129W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 17N between 98W and 107N, and from 07N to 10N between
109W and 122W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 06N to 13N east of 95W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California 
through Baja California Sur and to 22N111W. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data show gentle to locally moderate SE to SW winds and
slight seas are occurring through the Gulf, with locally fresh W
winds occurring just south of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, ridging
extends through the waters offshore of the Baja Peninsula, 
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered northwest of the area near 
38N149W. Moderate NW winds are occurring well offshore of Baja 
California Norte, where rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted. 
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the remainder of the 
Mexico waters is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds. 
Seas off the coast of Baja California Sur range from 5 to 7 ft in
NW swell, and 4 to 6 ft in S swell off the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, strong N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec tonight through late this week as low pressure 
develops to the south and strengthens. Winds may reach near-gale
force at times, and occasionally rough seas in N swell will 
accompany these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of California through midweek. Rough
seas offshore of Baja California Norte will slowly subside this 
evening. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds are 
expected across the Baja California waters through late week as 
high pressure prevails to the northwest. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring across the
Central American offshore waters, and erratic winds and rapidly 
building seas are likely near thunderstorms. Fresh E winds are 
pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo, supported by low pressure over 
the south-central Caribbean and developing low pressure to the 
southwest, centered near 09N89W. Locally fresh winds and seas to
8 ft are occurring in the vicinity of this low. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed 
SW and S swell prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will occur in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through midweek as low pressure strengthens 
to the southwest. Fresh NE winds will expand through the waters 
offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala by Tue as the low moves to 
the west-northwest. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this low pressure system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by late this week or over the 
weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the 
coast of southern Mexico. There is a low chance of development
within the next two days, and a high chance within the next seven
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are occurring north of 
10N and west of 120W as ridging prevails over much of the eastern
Pacific, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered northwest of the 
area near 38N149W. Rough seas of 8 to 9 ft in N swell prevail 
offshore of Baja California, north of 25N and east of 126W. 
Farther west, residual rough seas to 8 ft, aided by locally fresh
trade winds, are noted from 05N to 15N west of 135W. South of 
the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE to SW winds are 
occurring with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds 
are expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into 
Tue as high pressure prevails to the north. Winds will diminish 
slightly for midweek as the high weakens. Rough seas well 
offshore of Baja California will subside this evening, and west 
of 135W in the trade wind region through Tue. Elsewhere, a long- 
period mixed S and SE swell will move through the equatorial 
waters over the next several days, promoting rough seas south of 
05N tonight through late this week. 

$$
ADAMS