052 
AXPZ20 KNHC 280844
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Western East Pacific: An area of low pressure well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. The low is analyzed near 10.5N130.5W
1009 mb. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the
low, as noted in latest scatterometer data, with rough seas. 
Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical 
depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves 
generally westward around 10 kt. There is a medium chance of 
development of this system within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 88W from 05N northward through 
Honduras and into the western Caribbean, moving westward around 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the
southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 118W from 03N to 19N, moving 
westward around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 14N between 116W to 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N113W to beyond 
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N 
between 91W and 114W, and from 07N to 14N and W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface troughing extends through the Gulf of California, and 
high pressure prevails over the Baja California waters. The 
pressure gradient between these features is leading to moderate 
to fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San 
Lazaro, as observed on recent scatterometer satellite data. 
Recent altimeter satellite data show moderate seas in this 
region. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N gap winds and moderate seas 
are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as observed on 
altimeter data, as a tightening pressure gradient develops 
between troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure 
over east-central Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail over 
the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Moderate seas in 
mixed S and NW swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico, with 
slight seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high 
pressure builds over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of America. 
Strong NE to E winds and rough seas will extend beyond the 
Tehuantepec region by early Tue as a low pres develops and 
strengthens to the south. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW winds are
expected each afternoon and night offshore of Baja California 
through midweek as high pressure builds to the west. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data show fresh E winds prevail in the Gulf
of Papagayo and across the El Salvador and Guatemala waters as 
low pressure prevails over northern Colombia and a tropical wave 
moves westward through Central America. South of the monsoon 
trough, generally moderate S to SW winds are occurring. Moderate
seas prevail over the Central and South American waters, as 
observed on latest altimeter data. 

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds and moderate seas will occur
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon morning as low pressure 
prevails over northern Colombia. Fresh E winds will extend 
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through 
late Mon as an area of low pressure develops and strengthens to 
the southwest. Winds in this region will diminish by midweek. 
Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to strong winds look to redevelop in
the Gulf of Papagayo late this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the low pres with
potential to become a tropical system within the next 48 hrs.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough to 25N as ridging prevails to the north. Fresh winds and 
moderate seas are noted near a tropical wave analyzed near 
117W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in the northern 
waters, north of 25N, is leading to light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a disturbance located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. During the next 
day or two, an area of low pressure is forecast to form from this
area of disturbed weather, well off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week as it moves west-northwestward or 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance of development
of this system within the next 48 hours, and a high chance 
within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, widespread moderate to fresh 
N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon
trough this week as high pressure builds to the north. 

$$
ERA