484
AXPZ20 KNHC 210932
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 102W from 03N to
15N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 14N between
95W and 106W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters the Pacific near 10N86W and extends to
08N118W. The ITCZ continues from 08N118W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 10N east
of 86W, and from 04N to 08N west of 123W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate NW winds
across the Baja California waters and offshore of west-central
Mexico as ridging extends over the region. Locally fresh NW
winds, confirmed by scatterometer data, are noted north of Punta
Eugenia as well as near Cabo San Lucas, aided by the pressure
gradient between high pressure to the northwest and troughing
over coastal California. Large NW swell continues to support
rough seas north of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds
and slight seas prevail in the central and northern Gulf of
California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are occurring offshore of southern Mexico.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse offshore
of Cabo San Lucas each night through this weekend as troughing
prevails over Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, occasional fresh NW
winds are expected north of Punta Eugenia into this weekend as
low pressure remains over coastal Southern California. Rough seas
generated by strong winds north of the area will occur offshore
of Baja California Norte through Sat before seas slowly subside.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form by this weekend
or early next week several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development
of this system thereafter while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph. This system has a low
chance of tropical cyclone development through 7 days.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered moderate convection is occurring offshore of Panama
along and south of the monsoon trough, and moderate convection is
pushing offshore of western Colombia. Gusty winds and rapidly
building seas are possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise,
moderate SE to S winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate SE winds are noted to the north. Recent
altimeter satellite data show rough seas to 8 ft occurring south
of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW
swell prevail over the remainder of the regional waters.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will develop
in the Gulf of Papagayo today, with fresh to occasionally strong
winds pulsing tonight through this weekend. Locally rough seas
may accompany these winds. Elsewhere, rough seas in SW swell will
build south of the Galapagos Islands today. Looking ahead, a
long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will progress through the
South American offshore waters this weekend, promoting rough seas
in the region.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
Recent scatterometer satellite data reveal locally strong NE
winds occurring north of 20N between 125W and 140W, and
widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, as a 1031 mb high centered well north of the
area extends ridging through much of the eastern Pacific waters.
Recent SOFAR buoy data and altimeter data show seas of 7 to 9 ft
north of 20N between 120W and 140W in N to NE swell. Farther
south, short period trade wind generated rough seas are occurring
north of the ITCZ to around 15N, west of 125W. Elsewhere, a long
period Southern Hemisphere swell is promoting rough seas of 8 to
10 ft south of 06N, as confirmed by recent altimeter data. Winds
in this area are moderate to locally fresh from the SE.
For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds
will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ today as strong
high pressure to the north prevails. Mainly moderate N to NE
winds are expected north of 20N thereafter, as the aforementioned
high weakens. Farther south, moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds will prevail through this weekend. Large N to NE
swell will support rough seas north of 15N today, and offshore
of Baja California Norte into this weekend. Rough seas generated
by fresh trade winds will continue from 05N to 15N west of 125W
through late this week. Elsewhere, a long-period S to SW swell
will promote rough seas across the equatorial waters through Sun.
$$
ADAMS