000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011529
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a western Caribbean Sea tropical wave
axis that is along 84W extends southward across Pacific waters 
to near 05N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is presently noted.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 11N105W and to 09N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N120W
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed north of 03N and east of 85W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 02N to 12N and between 93W
and 119W and also from 04N to 08N and west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The low-level cyclonic swirl associated with the remnants of 
Alvin is moving into the southern portion of the Gulf of 
California as the system progresses northward. No significant 
convection is noted with this feature. Moderate to fresh 
cyclonic winds are observed north of 21N and east of 113W. 
Meanwhile, an upper level low off Baja California Norte is 
producing scattered showers affecting the northern portion of 
the state and also NW Sonora. The remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters are under the influence of a weak pressure 
gradient that maintains moderate or weaker winds, including in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Long-period, southerly swell producing seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) is 
present across much of the Mexican offshore waters, except for 
slight to moderate seas in the northern and central Gulf of 
California. The highest seas are noted near 14N103W. 

For the forecast, the remnant low pressure of Alvin will 
continue moving northward today while losing its identity, 
however, lingering swell from former Alvin will continue to 
impact portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and the 
southern Baja California Peninsula today. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally rough seas due to long-period SW will continue over the 
offshore waters of southwestern Mexico through Mon before 
subsiding. Long-period NW swell will induce rough seas offshore 
of Baja California Norte early next week, then subside during the
middle part of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure 
is forecast to form offshore of the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico by the middle part of the upcoming week. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form 
late in the week while it moves generally westward to west- 
northwestward. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery
off the coasts of Panama and Colombia. Strong gusty winds,
frequent lightning strikes and suddenly higher seas may be 
possible with this activity.

The subtropical ridge remains displaced by a frontal boundary
well north of the area, resulting in a weak pressure gradient
across the offshore waters of Central America and NW South
America. Moderate southerly winds are noted south of 05N, while
light to gentle winds are present elsewhere. A long-period, 
southerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m) across much
of the basin, except for seas of 3-6 ft (1-2 m) in the Gulf of 
Panama.

For the forecast, long-period southern hemispheric swell will 
propagate northeastward through the equatorial waters through
the rest of the weekend, promoting rough seas offshore of 
Ecuador and well offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador today. 
Seas will subside early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coasts of Central 
America and southern Mexico by the middle part of the upcoming 
week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form late in the week while it moves generally westward to 
west-northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is analyzed well N of the area, 
with its associated ridging reaching south-southeastward to near 
20N125W. The associated tight gradient is driving a swath of 
fresh N-NE winds over the NW and western sections of the area to 
the west of a line from near 30N125W to 20N135W and to 18N140W. 
Seas are 6-9 ft (2-3 m) in mixed NE and NW swell with these 
winds. Moderate to fresh trades are present over the far western 
part of the area from 10N to 18N W of 130W along with seas to 7 
ft (2 m) in decaying N to NE swell. Elsewhere, southern 
hemispheric swell is producing seas to 9 ft (3 m) roughly S of 
23N and east of 124W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds 
are noted south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

For the forecast, the southern hemispheric cross-equatorial 
swell will decay through Mon. The fresh N to NE winds over the 
NW part of the area are forecast to change little through the 
middle part of the upcoming week. Strong NE winds may reach to 
near 30N between 129W and 135W along with building seas to 12 ft 
(4 m).

$$
Delgado