000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040253
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: A powerful and complex 988 mb low 
pressure system is centered well north of the area near 42N128W.
Strong gale-force winds near the low center continue to support 
very large NW swell reaching the area waters as far south as 25N 
and as far east as 127W, with seas near 30N134W reaching 15 ft. 
This swell will continue to propagate to the southeast this 
weekend, reaching waters north of 24N and west of 125W overnight,
while only slowly subsiding. By late Sun, seas will fall below 
12 ft. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N100W to 09N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N east of 85W and 
from 10N to 20N between 115W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1017 mb high west of Baja 
California Sur near 24N118W and a surface trough along the 
eastern shores of the Gulf of California is leading to fresh NW 
winds from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes, 
westward to waters offshore Cabo San Lucas and in the vicinity of
the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and 
moderate seas primarily in NW swell prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure centered west of Baja California
Sur will weaken into Sun, ahead of a dissipating cold front, allowing
moderate to fresh winds south fo Cabo San Lazaro and from the 
southern Gulf of California to offshore Cabo Corrientes to 
diminish. Long period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja 
California offshore waters tonight through Mon. Farther south, 
expect strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into 
Mon, in the wake of a cold front moving through eastern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate NE to E
gap winds in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun
night through Tue. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas into Sun night.

Moderate to locally fresh winds and large NW swell follow a cold
front reaching from 30N120W to 21N127W. An upper trough persist
along roughly 130W, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 10N to 20N between 115W and 130W, as well as
fresh winds and seas to 7 ft in the same general area. Gentle to
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it continues to 
move eastward over the waters north of 21N tonight. A 
reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves 
eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, a third front will 
enter the northern waters Mon and approach 120W through late Tue.
These fronts will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge north 
of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the region 
through early next week. 

$$
Christensen