000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150728
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the 
waters N of 25N and W of 116W are being reinforced by new large
NW swell generated behind a cold front which extends over the NW
waters from 30N130W to 25N140W. Seas of 12 ft or greater have
begun to spread SE of 30N140W, and will continue to, with 12 to
18 ft seas across the waters N of 22N and W of 126W by early Mon,
then N of 23N and W of 117W by early Tue. Seas will then begin 
to subside to near 12 ft later Tue before new N swell enters the
northern waters Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed 
through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 10N86W to 03N100W. The ITCZ extends from 
03N100W to 03N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 88W and 92W, and from
08N to 11N between 132W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad and weakening high pressure ridge prevails across the 
waters with elongated troughing located just inland across much
of mainland Mexico. Winds are moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Rough seas 
of 8 to 9 ft are offshore Baja California from near Punta 
Eugenia northward with moderate seas elsewhere except slight in 
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area will 
drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse, ahead of a
cold front moving into the open waters well W of the area. Moderate
to fresh winds will pulse on either side of Baja California Sur 
to near Cabo Corrientes through tonight, then again starting 
Tue. The cold front will approach Baja California Norte Mon night
with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it in the northern Gulf 
of California, and west of Baja Norte through early Tue. These 
winds will diminish as the front moves through Baja California 
and the northern Gulf of California and gradually dissipates on 
Tue. High pressure building across the region behind the front 
will produce fresh to locally strong northerly winds N of Cabo
Corrientes Wed through Thu. NW swell moving across the Baja 
California Norte waters will gradually subside through early 
Mon. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters W of 110W Mon 
through Wed, with seas building to 12 ft and greater N of Punta 
Eugenia Mon night through Tue evening. Fresh to strong gap winds 
will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Tue 
morning before diminishing.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue across the Papagayo 
region. This is generating seas to near 7 ft offshore. Moderate
to locally fresh N-NE winds prevail near the Azuero Peninsula. 
Moderate or weaker winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and locally rough
seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early today,
then pulse to moderate to fresh through Mon. Fresh to strong 
winds may return there Mon night through early Thu as high 
pressure builds across the NW Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh N to NE winds will generally continue across the Gulf of 
Panama through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little 
through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.

A cold front is over the NW waters, extending from 30N130W to
25N140W. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are behind the 
front, up to around 12 ft near 30N140W. Weak and broad high 
pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades are from 07N to 17N between 120W and 140W with moderate 
or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft elsewhere N of 07N
and W of 118W, and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open
waters.

For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell 
entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds
behind it will reach from 30N123W to 19N140W Mon morning, and 
from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue, with winds N of 
20N behind it diminishing as the front weakens. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front and the belt of moderate to 
fresh trades N of the ITCZ will increase to at least fresh to 
strong early next week. Active showers and thunderstorms, with 
rough to very rough seas in NW swell will accompany these 
increasing trades.

$$
Lewitsky