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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 172044

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2040 UTC Sat Aug 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC. 


A 1010 mb low pressure center is located near 12N92W this
afternoon, or about 160 nm S of the coast of Guatemala.
Circulation associated with this low is supporting numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms within about 240 nm of the
center, accompanied by gusty winds and heavy downpours. This
activity is affecting coastal portions of El Salvador and
Guatemala. This low is expected to move WNW through early next
week, bringing a potential for flash flooding over El Salvador,
Guatemala, and Chiapas in Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually
increase across the offshore waters of El Salvador and southern
Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. 


A tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Honduras SSE across
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, moving W of 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
strong convection associated with this wave is mainly located
over Central America.

A tropical wave axis is located along 101W, moving W around 10 
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located 
in a broad area from 10N to 17N between 100W and 107W.

A tropical wave axis is located along 118W, moving W around 10 
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection has 
developed from 08N to 13N between 113W and 121W. Low pressure may
form in association with this wave early next week as it moves
slowly westward.

A tropical wave axis is located along 128W, moving W at 5 to 10 
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is 
occurring from 10N to 18N between 124W and 130W. Low pressure may
form along 15N in with this wave early next week as it drifts


The monsoon trough extends from 11N78W to low pres near 12N92W to
14N125W to 10N140W. Convection along the trough is mainly
associated with the aforementioned tropical waves.


A weak high pressure ridge extends SW from the north-central
Pacific into the Baja California offshore waters, bringing gentle
to moderate NW winds to these waters. This ridge will generally
remain in place into the middle of next week. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and low pressure over the western
United States has led to strong winds offshore California, which
has generated N swell that has propagated to northern parts of
the waters offshore Baja California Norte. Seas at times through
tonight in this area will reach 7 ft, before subsiding Sunday.
The pressure gradient will increase again early next week,
increasing NW winds to moderate to fresh. A low pressure trough 
along the Baja California peninsula will support fresh S to SE 
winds over the northern Gulf tonight, before diminishing Sunday.

Low pressure offshore Guatemala will move WNW over the next few
days and spread showers, thunderstorms, and squalls into the
waters in and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week.
Easterly winds will increase to strong in association with this 
low, with seas building to near 8 ft.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
the area of low pressure offshore of Guatemala and associated 
heavy coastal rainfall.

Offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at times to
fresh through early next week. Southerly swell will produce seas
of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sunday
into Monday. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds will prevail into 
early next week, along with seas of 4 to 6 feet.


Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the NW corner, with moderate 
winds or less elsewhere. Winds will diminish Sun into early next 
week as the pressure gradient slackens. Northerly swell N of 27N 
will lead to seas of 8 to 9 ft to the W of 125W through early Sun
before decaying.