000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261016
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.6N 111.0W, or about 340
nm west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 26/0900 UTC, 
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 917 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 
175 kt. Peak seas are 46 ft (14 m). Polo continues to look very 
impressive in satellite imagery as it remains a powerful category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A clear 
15 nm wide eye is observed. The imagery reveals that Polo has 
numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE 
quadrant, 75 nm in the SE and 120 nm of the center in the W 
semicircle. Polo will make a gradual turn toward the northwest 
late today and toward the north on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast 
to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur. Slow 
weakening is expected to begin tonight, but Polo is expected to 
remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur 
on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja 
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For
a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 19.1N 123.7W, or about 800 nm 
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 26/0900
UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120
kt. Peak seas are 37 ft (11 m). Odalys is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is 
forecast to continue through early next week. A small eye has
become obscured by clouds. satellite imagery shows numerous
strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
within 60 nm in the S semicircle and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. 
Odalys is expected to maintain its current motion today, followed
by a turn toward the northeast on Sun. An eastward to 
southeastward motion is forecast early next week. Weakening is 
forecast continue through early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low 
pressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form in a day or two, while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of 
tropical formation within the next 48 hours. The broader 
circulation, deep moisture, and instability associated with this 
system is already producing heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America and Southern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts 
through Sat night across portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and 
Guatemala, as well as Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise 
concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. 
Please refer to local weather services as well as the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern 
Panama, to 08N83W to 09N90W to Invest EP90 and to 14N99W. It 
resumes south of Odalys at 14N122W to 11N127W to 10N130W and 
to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
from 04N to 08N between 84W-87W, from 05N to 09N between 
127W-134W, and from 01N to 09N west of 135W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 92W-96W,
and within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 122W-127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and on Hurricane Odalys as well as
developing low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is
bringing very heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. 
Fresh northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. 
Seas there are 5 to 7 ft.

Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate gentle to
moderate northwest to north winds offshore the Baja California 
Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican 
offshore waters away from Hurricane Polo. Light to gentle winds 
are in the Gulf of California. Large seas in long- period 
southeast to south swell out ahead of Polo are impacting the 
offshore waters of Baja California south of about Punta Eugenia 
and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas produced by 
the swell are in the range of about 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft
in west to northwest are over the offshore waters of the states 
of Michoacna and Guerrero and seas of 5 to 7 ft in west to 
northwest swell are over the waters of those states. Seas of 2 to
4 ft are in the central section of the Gulf of California, 3 ft 
or less in the northern section and 4 to 6 ft in the southern 
section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W
this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to 
near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun 
afternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N 
113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. 
Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over 
NW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo 
will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California 
offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys 
is near 19.1N 123.7W, or about 800 nm west- southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California at 26/0900 UTC, moving north at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Odalys will 
move to near 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 123.5W 
late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.1W 
Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, 
move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post-tropical 
and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a 
remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change little in
intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue night. 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better 
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a 
day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast winds are
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure organizes
south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds
dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas 
are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the 
area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through 
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to 
prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along 
with mostly moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. 

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward 
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters 
west of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.
Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per overnight satellite 
altimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough 
seas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. 

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.6N 111.0W, or 
about 340 nm west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 917 mb. Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W 
this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to 
near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun 
afternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N 
113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. 
Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over 
NW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo 
will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California 
offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys 
is near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 800 nm west-southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, moving north at 4 
kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt,
and the minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Odalys will move to 
near move to 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 123.5W 
late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.1W 
Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, 
move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post- tropical 
and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a 
remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change little in
intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue night. 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better 
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a 
day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. 

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
over the next day or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast 
of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week. The system is forecast to 
move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to near gale southwest winds will
develop south of the monsoon trough over the far western part of
the area starting this afternoon in response to the developing 
area of low pressure, Seas are expected to build to around 8 to 
11 ft with these winds.

$$
Aguirre