000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100407
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 93W to the north of 02N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 115W, from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N110W to 08N125W. 
The ITCZ is from 08N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is active from 01N to 10N E of 100W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 14N between 100W and
130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds are across the waters off Baja 
California along with moderate seas. Farther south, strong N 
winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 
estimated to be 6-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are
mainly fresh from the SE with seas to 4 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas in SW swell. 

For the forecast, ridging off Baja California is weakening as 
pressure lowers over the Colorado River Valley. This pattern will
support fresh to locally strong S winds across the northern Gulf
of California tonight through Fri night. Farther south, pulses 
of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through early next week. An area of low pressure is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week several 
hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical 
depression could form next week while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the
lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas offshore of Oaxaca and Chiapas by Sun 
night, and off Guerrero by Mon night. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and 
Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to 
be 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N.
Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the 
Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to 
gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 
4-6 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and
into the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. An area of low pressure is
expected to form late this weekend or early next week several 
hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical 
depression could form next week while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the
lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by 
Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting 
moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. 
Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW 
swell to 8 ft is reaching 04N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas
are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to 
the east of 125W into Fri. Farther south, large swell to 7-8 ft 
will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri.
A broad area of low pressure may become better organized this 
weekend into early next week over the tropical eastern Pacific 
west of 130W, although chances of tropical cyclone development 
remain low through the next seven days.

$$
Ramos