000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152044
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 15.7N 125.0W at
15/2100 UTC, moving west-southwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N 
between 119W and 125W. The system will continue to weaken while
on a general westward to west-southwestward motion then dissipate
by Thu morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure building over southern Mexico and the eastern north
Pacific monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N 
to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Wed, and will
reach minimal gale force Wed night. Rough seas will accompany 
these gap winds.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 02N to 17N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N116W. It resumes
from 13N128W to 13N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 00N to 12N east of 132W, and from 10N to 16N between 135W 
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale
warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds are over the 
northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft 
are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the central and southern 
Gulf.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for 
information about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Elsewhere, fresh SE to S winds pulse across the northern Gulf of
California through Wed. Large N swell off Baja California Norte 
near Guadalupe Island will subside through mid week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate seas, prevail 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 
90W. Moderate to fresh winds extend downstream from the Gulf of
Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and 
Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through mid 
week, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate 
winds and seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information 
about Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.

SW swell from the southern hemisphere is crossing the equator 
and reaching as far north as 03N between 100W and 120W. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4-6 ft combined seas in mixed swell are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will move to 
15.2N 126.3W Wed morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.0N 
128.2W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning.

The southerly swell south of 03N will subside below 8 ft by this
evening.

$$
AL